Dear ATCA Colleagues; dear IntentBloggers

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. Andrew Leung, based in London, UK, for "China as an aspiring Superpower: Signal for a Space arms race or a Win-Win engagement;" and
. Ashutosh Sheshabalaya, based in Brussels and Bassilly, Belgium, for "China and India differences come out in the open;"

in response to the ATCA think-piece "China's space weapon test concerns the US, UK and allies in Asia and Pacific."

Andrew Leung has over 40 years of experience in a variety of senior positions working closely with mainland China, including Hong Kong, with a focus on commerce, industry, finance, banking, transport, social welfare and diplomatic representation. He has addressed numerous local and international business and strategic forums, groups and organisations on China, including making regular television appearances. He has written many commentaries on China for various organisations including ATCA. His audience includes finance and investment houses, institutional investors, large businesses, think tanks, senior officials and business schools. Andrew was twice sponsored personally by the US Government on briefing visits to the United States, including a month-long visit to brief Chairmen and CEOs of multi-nationals in regard to China post-Tiananmen Square. He was also sponsored by the Economist as a speaker at the China conference in Berlin with the German Foreign Affairs Institute. He was invited to brief personally the Duke of York and the Lord Mayor of London prior to their China visits.

Andrew is on the Governing Council of King's College London; the Advisory Board of Nottingham University's China Policy Institute; and the Executive Committee of the 48 Group Club with historical and working links with the Chinese leadership. He has been appointed as a Global Representative for Changsha City, China. He chairs the China Interest Group of the Institute of Directors' City Branch. He is a Visiting Professor of the International MBA Programmes of China's Sun Yat-Sen and Lingnan Universities and a Visiting Professor at the Graduate School of Management, NIMBAS University, Holland. Andrew is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts (FRSA) and has been elected to its Executive Committee for the London Region. He was awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the 2005 Hong Kong's Honours List. He has qualifications from the University of London, Cambridge University, The Law Society and Harvard Business School. He speaks Cantonese and Mandarin and practices Chinese calligraphy as well as fine art. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: China as an aspiring Superpower: Signal for a Space arms race or a Win-Win engagement

Although China apparently used a relatively old-fashioned ballistic missile to knock out an outdated satellite, it is no surprise that it triggered a chorus of concern amidst her Asia and Pacific neighbours, especially the United States. Apart from the resultant debris which may threaten military and civilian satellite traffic, the high strike altitude of 800 kilometres has an orientation against adversary military reconnaissance, communications and navigation. China analyst Robert Hewson, Editor of Air-launched Weapons at Jane's Defence, called this 'a weapon pure and simple', with the US as the number one target.

The worldwide concern is understandable, as this is the first known missile satellite-killing test in over 20 years, following at the heel of a Chinese laser allegedly fired in September capable of 'blinding' an American satellite.

A recent Pentagon report to Congress warned that China's military is in the process of a long-term transformation from a mass army to a modern force capable of fighting 'short-duration, high-intensity conflicts against high-tech adversaries'. This is against the background of a perceived six-fold increase in China's defence expenditure since 1991 to $80 billion, more than three times Beijing's official figure, although still minute compared with the US.

There is also the awareness that China is rapidly modernising her military capabilities, including the development of the more accurate and longer-range Dongfang missile series capable of reaching all targets across the US, the home-made J-10 fighter jet with cutting-edge Israeli and Russian technology, and the acquisition of long-range unmanned aircraft and air-refuelling equipment.

The US space position, however, risks the charge of double standards. In addition to undertaking research on satellite-killing lasers, last August President Bush launched a new national US space policy which seeks to 'preserve its rights, capabilities and freedom of action in space' and to 'deny such freedom of action to adversaries'. At the same time, the US rejected a call from 160 countries, China included, to have talks on banning weapons in space. This has fuelled comments that the US wants to turn the Final Frontier into 'the 51st state of America'. It has also led to speculation that China's latest anti-satellite test is building pressure to negotiate a treaty to ban military use of space such as the US proposed missile defence shield.

In fact, the world is becoming increasingly security-sensitive, with recalcitrant international terrorism, continuing resource and geopolitical rivalries, creeping nuclear proliferation threats, and avowed pre-emptive policies. In addition to the US, even France indicated in early 2006 that it reserves the right to launch nuclear pre-emptive strikes. Britain announced its upgrading of strategic nuclear forces. The Russian government unveiled the allocation of USD 180 billion for a new weapons system including a space force by 2015. Japan launched a third spy satellite for a global intelligence system, with a fourth this year and a new model in 2009, while upgrading its defence administration to a full state ministry. The EU is also deploying radar satellites for military surveillance.

With the security of oil and gas import becoming ever more crucial for her breakneck development, China has alluded to the development of her navy into a 'blue-water' nuclear-armed fleet capable of distant operations. This is to be supported by a 'String of Pearls' of military and diplomatic strategic bases along the critical sea lanes from the South China Sea to the Middle East.

As Xu Guangyu, Director of China Arms Control and Disarmament Association said, 'If one side reinforces a shield, the other will reinforce its spear. It is all too easy to start a competition'

Still generations behind the US and Russia, China is catching up fast with its broad-based space program. In October 2005, her manned space flight Shenzhou 6 successfully returned to base after orbiting the Earth more than 70 times. Shenzhou 7 is scheduled to feature a space walk in 2008 and Shenzhou 8 to include piloted space docking in 2009-11, leading to a moon-walk in 2017. This will be supplemented by the Chang'e (Moon Goddess) series of pilot less missions: a lunar orbiter in 2007, a lunar landing in 2012, and a robotic rover to sample the Moon's surface and return to Earth by 2020. On the cards is a permanent moon station. The attraction of the moon is not without commercial possibilities, including the extraction of Helium-3 (virtually none on Earth) as a vastly powerful and non-polluting fuel source.

China's space program is part and parcel of her drive for technology and innovation. As highlighted in the Economist (13 January), certain investors are beginning to diversify from China (at least in part) in face of mounting cost, resource and China-targeted protectionism. Margins have become extremely thin for Made-in-China manufacturing. At a national conference in Beijing in January 2006, President Hu extolled the imperative of building a Nation of Innovation, underpinning what I call China's 'Long March for Brands', a subject discussed extensively on ATCA. The ensuing development plan mandates a contribution of 60% by 2020 from science and technology to China's economic growth with 2.5% of GDP devoted to scientific research and development.

Advancement in technology and innovation appears to underpin a drive towards superpower status. But China is very much alive to the reality that what is at stake is more likely to be national survival. Years of relentless unbalanced growth has generated a host of critical problems, manifested in a rising number of isolated 'mass incidents' in excess of 87,000. These Writings on the Wall, as catalogued in Will Hutton's latest book, are already coolly flagged up in the latest 11th Five Year Plan (2006 -10). Indeed, I delved on them in my earlier ATCA article 'The Sun Also Rises' (20 June, 2006).

Ensuing from the Plan, provincial party secretaries will be appraised not only on economic growth but on the general well-being of the people under their charge. Priority is given to healthcare, welfare and education, to the countryside and less developed regions. Accountable targets are set for annual energy reduction by 4% per unit of GDP, and emission by 2%. Provincial plans are mandated to include measurable environmental sustainability. Policies and measures are designed to promote consumption and social harmony. Emphasis is placed on a more law-and-rule-based, 'scientific' model of governance. A national strategy on Intellectual Property Protection is being vigorously implemented not only for WTO compliance but as a pre-requisite for home grown innovation.

At the same time, there is increasing awareness of the need for more transparent and 'accountable' governance, honing a more professional civil service, firing derelict officials including some at ministerial levels, getting tougher with rampant corruption, and continual self-renewal of the Chinese Communist Party. The leadership keeps on reminding officials of the importance of 'people-based' governance, or 'Government for the People', trying to align power with public responsibility. This is somewhat reminiscent of the ancient traditional Confucian philosophy of equating the 'Mandate of Heaven' with 'Dao' or achieving national harmony or good governance.

With the highest mobile phone population and the second highest internet population in the world, China's society has become relatively much more open. There are now some 36 million blogs and 60 million bloggers. Chatrooms openly discus and debate a variety of topics ranging from the latest fads to social ills and grievances, save a few political taboos. Reality TV shows like Super Girl with audience text message voting are becoming a rage amongst China's 200 million 15 -24 year-olds. It is not uncommon that the local media actively reports on consumer interest violations, pollution and corruption scandals. As many as a quarter of a million local NGOs are actively working with the government, especially environment authorities, to address current social issues or problems. Both President Hu and Premier Wen pride themselves on using the internet for public feedback. A more civil society is developing.

Though far from the West's 'one-man one vote' model, elections are common in local neighbourhood committees and villages (within their limited delegated powers) covering a huge proportion of China's population.

Notwithstanding the many pitfalls, there is broad-based support for the Party's continuing efforts for more openness and reform. The 'official nomenclatura' takes pride in local and national economic successes. The rising Chinese 'middle-class' are generally fairly happy with their lot. Though bubbling in various localities, the rural issues are being addressed, starting with the abolition of rural taxation. According to Stephen Roach, even if China's growth rate should drop to 7.5%, it would still be enough to generate sufficient jobs to absorb the layoff workers from the reform process, whose annualised numbers have reduced from 7 million to 2 million.

Whilst the number of mass incidents is still rising, a Pew Global Attitudes Survey released in June 2006 found that 81% of Chinese were satisfied with the state of the nation, compared with 29 % for Americans and 35% for Britons. It is also tale telling that the Chinese satisfaction figure increased from 48% in 2002 to 72% in 2005.

So it is perhaps not surprising that since 1989, there has been no discernable broad-based movement in China for more rapid democratic reform, even from the intelligentsia. Former exiled 'activists' have since lost steam. In their article 'The Rise of Sustainable Autocracy' in the 2005 September/October issue of Foreign Affairs, Buenos de Mesquita & Down argue that enlightened or benevolent autocracy can sustain continuing economic prosperity and can endure a very long time. It is instructive to remember that China's Tang, Han, Song, and Ming imperial dynasties oversaw a prolonged period of social stability and prosperity, enabling China to dominate the world's economy for over a millennium up to the 1400s.

So unless the Party gravely undermines its 'people-based' mandate by serious internal abuses or gross incompetence, even a cyclical economic downturn may be insufficient to trigger a sudden broad-based movement for democratic revolution.

But that doesn't mean that there will be no democratic progress. China has learnt a clear lesson from the collapse of the former USSR trying to transplant both Western democracy (glasnost) and economic reform (perestroika) all within 500 days in the absence of a firm foundation. As an ancient Chinese saying goes, you can't make a plant grow taller and faster by pulling up its roots. In a White House speech during his recent visit to the US, President Hu said, 'We aim to raise China's GDP to USD 4 trillion by 2020, averaging USD 3,000 per capita. By then, China's economy will be better developed and its democracy will be further enhanced.' We are therefore likely to see a cautious and pragmatic approach of feeling the pebbles first before crossing the stream.

Notwithstanding China's overall breathtaking progress and achievements, with a population the size of a fifth of mankind including some 800 million peasants, China's per capita GDP still ranks below 100 in the world, comparable to some less developed countries in Africa. There remain huge challenges for her to grapple with. In a highly inter-dependent world, many of these stand to benefit from international engagement and interaction, be they space exploration and aeronautical science, energy safety and efficiency, green and high technologies, free trade, finance and banking, healthcare and insurance, education and training, market reform, professional management, corporate governance and the rule of law. With international cooperation, these challenges stand a good chance of turning into mutually beneficial opportunities.

China needs an internal and international stable and harmonious environment in order to progress fairly smoothly and rapidly, before her aging period sets in, say in 30 to 40 years time, when the One Child Policy generation grows old with a heavy dependency ratio. Hence China's persistent reference to Harmony and Peaceful Rise or Development, predicated upon a consistent policy of non-aggression, multilateralism, peaceful co-existence and mutual cooperation and benefit. Not only can she not afford to be militarily aggressive, but she needs all the help she can get from the global community of nations in her continuing quest for progress and development.


Andrew K P Leung, SBS, FRSA
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Ashutosh Sheshabalaya is the author of 'Rising Elephant', which is a heavily-researched bestseller about India's rise and long-term opportunity and challenge to the West, published in the US, India and Europe. Described as a "tour de force" by the Director of UBS bank's Wolfsberg think-tank and as "highly provocative" by former Indian Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani, 'Rising Elephant' has been reviewed worldwide. He has worked in Brussels as an accredited foreign correspondent, in public affairs (for the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries), and as a strategic consultant -- both for private corporations as well as the European Commission, Invest in Sweden Agency and others. In total, he has led research projects for over 65 studies covering a wide range of industries. Now heading Belgium-based India-Advisory, he is a frequent speaker at conferences and seminars in Europe, India and the US, a columnist for the Indian online news portal Sify and an occasional contributor to Yale University's Center for Globalisation and Washington's Globalist. A winner of the all-India National Science Talent Scholarship and the Wien International Scholarship, he studied at a leading Indian engineering institution, the Birla Institute of Technology and Science, and at Brandeis University in the US. Mr Sheshabalaya is married to a Belgian and is part of New and Old India. His parents were both university Vice Chancellors, and his family includes an Industry Minister in the Nehru government, a Commissioner in British India and representative of the Tata industrial group, one of India's first women legislators, senior military officers, diplomats and seven members of the elite Indian Administrative Service (IAS). He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: China and India differences come out in the open

2007-2009 will be remembered as years when the differences between China and India increasingly come to the attention of global policy-makers.

In this respect, it is worth contrasting the Chinese anti-satellite test with Saturday's launch by the Indian PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) rocket of four satellites, including one for Argentina and a second for Indonesia. This follows similar Indian collaboration on scientific space programs with countries ranging from Belgium and Germany to South Korea. As India's launch successes become more routine, it is understandable that the world media ignores such milestones.

However, in the light of the confrontational example set by China, it is worth noting that the Indian space program has far more transparently civilian priorities. Examples include dedicated Indian satellites for forestry and fishing stocks management, pollution control, urban mapping, disaster management and the world's first two-tonne-plus satellite exclusively for distance education. Data from some of its remote sensing satellites are in fact widely used in the West. On India's space agenda for the near future is yet another world pioneer -- a satellite exclusively dedicated to telemedicine.

The Chinese success in the area of precision space targeting is no doubt at least partly due to its success with Dawning 4000A, a supercomputer built with the help of American firms. Ironically, Indians built two of America's fastest supercomputers -- Thunder (at Lawrence Livermore) and System X, while the lead architect on Pacific Blue (as well as the Regatta server and Power 4 chip) is Ravi Arimilli, an Indian-born scientist at IBM who accounts for 10% of the US company's patent filings from its chip design centre in Austin, Texas.

Meanwhile, back home in India, rather than military applications, one of the highest priorities for the Indian-built Param Padma supercomputer are local eGovernment applications.

I am not out to paint a rosy picture of an idyllic, Gandhian India against a militaristic Chinese superpower in the making. The multiple satellite launch by India on Saturday also demonstrates a MIRV (Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicle) missile capability, while other Indian supercomputers remain integral to India's own military and missile programs.

What is however needed is more attention to the seemingly routine high-technology successes of another fast-rising Asian Great Power. Indeed, I would be curious to see the "official" Indian response to this Chinese provocation. One does tend to forget that India too has a satellite infrastructure and interests in outer space to protect -- rather more, I suspect, than many of the countries whose responses are noted in the ATCA think-piece "China's space weapon test concerns the US, UK and allies in Asia and Pacific."

Kind regards

Ashutosh Sheshabalaya

[ENDS]

-----Original Message-----
From: Intelligence Unit
Sent: 20 January 2007 08:54
To: 'atca.members@mi2g.com'
Subject: ATCA: China's space weapon test concerns the US, UK and allies in Asia and Pacific

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

Re: China's space weapon test concerns the US, UK and allies in Asia and Pacific

America and Britain's allies across Asia and the Pacific -- including Japan, Australia and South Korea -- have joined in condemnation of China's successful test of an anti-satellite missile that has raised fears of a new weapons race in space. The test reportedly knocked out an aging Chinese weather satellite with a vehicle launched on board a ballistic missile. The satellite was believed to be located at about 800 kilometres above the earth.

China

A spokesman for China's foreign ministry has said that China also opposes what he called the 'weaponisation' of space, and is not looking for a space weapons race. The Chinese spokesman would not confirm the test, but US intelligence and military sources have confirmed it, as have civilian experts who monitor space activity.

The revelation that China had successfully carried out the test firing appeared to come as a surprise to the Chinese foreign ministry, which at first refused to put out a statement. Last night its chief spokesman, Liu Jianchao, said he had been given no information about a test. But he added that China remained opposed to any military use of space. "We do not believe in an arms race in space and we are not going to get into one," he said.

The test followed an incident in September when, according to US defence sources, China fired a laser capable of "blinding" an American satellite. Taken together, they confirm that not only has China become the third nation to put a man into space, but it has also acquired the means to wage war there as well.

The US and the Soviet Union both tested similar anti-satellite missile systems in the 1980s but later abandoned them. The formal reason given was that the debris created was a danger to both military and civilian satellite systems, of the kind on which social infrastructures from communications to transport systems rely.

USA

Criticising China's test of an anti-satellite weapon, the US State Department said "modern life as we know it" depends on the security of space-based technology. Deputy spokesman Tom Casey said the administration raised concerns about the test with Chinese officials in Washington DC and in Beijing, making clear its opposition to "any militarization of space." He said tests of the kind that China carried out "produce extensive amounts of space debris, have the potential for disturbing or accidentally disrupting communication satellites or other kinds of space vehicles that are out there."

A report released on Friday by a congressional advisory panel said there was some movement within the Chinese military for development of an anti-satellite weapons system that could be used against US targets without warning. The report said that even a small-scale attack could have "catastrophic" consequences for the United States.

At the White House on Friday, deputy press secretary Dana Perino said Chinese officials had not yet responded to US inquiries. "We do want cooperation on a civil space strategy, so until we hear back from them or have more information, I don't have any more to add," Perino said.

Mr Casey acknowledged that the United States carried out an anti-satellite device test in 1985 but said the international context was entirely different at the time, pointing to the Cold war tensions of that period. More important, he said is the impact of space technology on everyday life compared with the earlier period. As examples, satellite communications have revolutionized weather forecasting as well as television viewing. Satellites are also important for military communications.

US House Representative Terry Everett, senior Republican on the House Armed Services Subcommittee of Strategic Forces, said China's test "raises serious concerns about the vulnerability of our space-based assets. We depend on satellites for a host of military and commercial uses, from navigation to ATM transactions."

Mr Casey, asked whether the United States plans to forswear weapons tests in space, said, "My understanding is there are no plans or intentions on the part of the United States to engage in such activities."

In his annual threat address to Congress, the head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt Gen Michael Maples, said last week that China and Russia are the "primary states of concern" regarding military space programs. "Several countries continue to develop capabilities that have the potential to threaten US space assets, and some have already deployed systems with inherent anti-satellite capabilities," he said. His written testimony was presented on January 11th, the same day as China's test.

The Chinese test prompted the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, the congressional advisory panel, to release a lengthy study on the country's potential anti-satellite weapons capabilities. The study was prepared by China expert Michael Pillsbury and is based on open-source Chinese documents.

A senior State Department official says the United States wants China to explain why it developed an anti-satellite weapon, calling the move "inconsistent with the constructive relationship" on the use of space agreed to by the two countries' presidents. The official said the ability to use space is vital to US national security, economic and foreign policy interests. And he said the hundreds of pieces of debris that resulted from the Chinese test endanger other vehicles in space, including manned vehicles, and may endanger people on the ground when they eventually fall to earth.

The official said the Chinese test did not violate any international treaties, but did violate what he called the "the intent and the spirit" of the international Space Treaty, which guarantees free access to space for all peaceful purposes. He said the United States "reserves the right to defend and protect its space systems with a wide range of options from diplomatic to military."

The State Department official said even after the Chinese anti-satellite missile test there is no space weapons race. The United States is not interested in any additional space treaties that might limit its freedom of action in space.

UK

The British embassy in Beijing said it had raised the issue with the China's foreign ministry. Downing Street later expanded on the British Government's reason for raising the issue. "We are concerned about the impact of debris in space and expressed that concern," the spokesman said. "We do not believe that this does contravene international law. What we are concerned about however is lack of consultation. We believe that the development of this technology and the manner in which this test was conducted are inconsistent with the spirit of China's statements to the UN and other bodies on the military use of space."

Asia and Pacific

Foreign ministries in Japan, Australia and South Korea and their embassies in Beijing have also expressed their concern about the use of a land-based missile to destroy a redundant weather satellite. The US disclosure that China had carried out the test raised concerns in Australasia and prompted demands for explanations from Beijing. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki also suggested that China's lack of transparency over its military development could trigger suspicions about its motives in the region. Alexander Downer, the Australian foreign minister, called the Chinese ambassador to Canberra.

China's Ulterior Motive

China has repeatedly called on the United States to join it in declaring an end to the military use of space. Some analysts said its latest test might be designed to force America into a deal that would involve dropping its proposed missile defence system.

Independent Space Security Experts

Dean Cheng of the CNA Corporation, an independent research organisation, states "This test shows that the Chinese have the ability to challenge us in space. The Chinese are a qualitatively different counterparty than any other country is in this regard. I think it definitely requires a response, but I think that the first and foremost response is to develop a better understanding of what kind of vulnerabilities we have, given our reliance on space-based systems," he said.

Cheng says the United States should develop a series of backup systems to replace military satellites in case they are destroyed during a war. He says the backups could be aircraft or different satellites in higher orbits.

Cheng says the altitude where China destroyed its satellite, about 800 kilometres high, is used heavily for military purposes including reconnaissance, navigation, remote sensing and earth imaging, as well as for weather satellites which are also important in military planning. He notes that communications satellites and satellites used to detect ballistic missile attacks fly much higher and would not be vulnerable to China's new weapon.

The Director of the private Center for Defense Information, Theresa Hitchens, says the Chinese test should push the United States to negotiate an agreement on the appropriate civilian and military uses of space. "The spectre of an all-out war in space, where satellites are being blown up willy-nilly is incredibly scary. We have the most to lose if space becomes a shooting ground," she said.

Hitchens says a new treaty should include punishment for nations that take inappropriate actions in space, like destroying satellites and littering space with debris.

[ENDS]

We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes


For and on behalf of DK Matai
Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)
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ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses opportunities and threats arising from climate chaos; radical poverty; geo-politics, organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews; pandemics; and financial systems. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 100 countries: including several from the House of Lords, House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10's Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial institutions, scientific corporates and voluntary organisations as well as over 750 Professors from academic centres of excellence worldwide.

The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please do not forward or use the material circulated without permission and full attribution.
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