ATCA - February 19, 2007
We are grateful to Dr Ian Davis of the British American Security Information Council, based in London and Washington DC, for his submission to ATCA, "Iran -- To win without waging war."
Dear ATCA Colleagues, dear IntentBloggers
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]
We are grateful to Dr Ian Davis of the British American Security Information Council, based in London and Washington DC, for his submission to ATCA, "Iran -- To win without waging war."
Dr Ian Davis is Co-Executive Director of the British American Security Information Council (BASIC). With offices in Washington DC and London, BASIC acts as a transatlantic bridge for policy makers and opinion formers on these issues, and seeks to promote public awareness of security and arms control in order to foster a more informed debate leading to creative and sustainable solutions. Ian has a diverse background in government, academia, and the non-governmental organisation (NGO) sector. He received both his PhD and BA in Peace Studies from the University of Bradford, in the United Kingdom. Ian has published widely on British defence and foreign policy, transatlantic security issues, the international arms trade, arms control and disarmament issues. He has made high-level presentations in Washington, DC and in Europe on WMD non-proliferation and transatlantic security issues. He writes:
Dear DK and Colleagues
Re: Iran -- To win without waging war
This is a follow-up to the ATCA submission "The necessity for US-Iran Dialogue." [August 2006]
The prospects for direct US diplomatic engagement with Iran have been more openly discussed in Washington following the publication of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report in late 2006 (the latest of several US bipartisan expert study groups recommending dialogue with Iran, including a 2004 working group of the Council on Foreign Relations, led by Robert Gates and Zbigniew Brzezinski, and a 2001 Atlantic Council of the United States Working Group led by Lee Hamilton, James Schlesinger, and Brent Scowcroft). Hopes have been raised by the successful completion of the latest round of six-party negotiations to freeze North Korea's plutonium-production complex. The urgency of resolution has lessened a little with the news that Iranian enrichment efforts have suffered considerable setback from corrosion caused by the uranium hexafluoride feedstock.
Yet the US administration continues to talk and act tough towards Iran. President Bush has used several recent speeches about Iraq to accuse Iran of providing material support for attacks on US troops in Iraq. American soldiers have arrested Iranian diplomats in Iraq, and an additional US aircraft carrier is on its way to the Persian Gulf.
And the ante was upped considerably last week by President Bush's public endorsement of the assertions made by anonymous US military and intelligence officials that an elite branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard is supplying weaponry to Shia insurgents in Iraq - weapons that these US officials say are directly responsible for killing at least 170 American soldiers and wounding more than 600. An anonymous Downing Street spokesman is quoted in The Guardian as saying that Tony Blair had been "at the cutting edge of identifying this problem," referring to his explicit support for an anonymous Ambassadorial briefing in October 2005 alleging a similar influx of Iranian weaponry to insurgents. It became clear that there was little evidence of Iranian government involvement, and the story was quietly withdrawn.
In this latest episode, General Peter Pace, the chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staffs told The Associated Press that while some bomb materials were made in Iran, "that does not translate that the Iranian government, per se, for sure, is directly involved in doing this." And the recently declassified summary of the second US National Intelligence Estimate for Iraq made clear that Iran's influence in Iraq "is not likely to be a driver of violence." Hence, there is no smoking gun.
It is clear the US administration is 'building a case' against Iran. What it intends to do with that case is unclear. But while the situation is dynamic and uncertain, some of the major underlying issues have remained constant.
The first of these issues is the need for accountable, farsighted and coordinated problem solving in Washington and the capitals of Europe - as opposed to the irresponsible, short-sighted and largely unilateral US-led action that has led to the failure in Iraq. It would be folly of an even greater magnitude to rely upon a build up of US military forces within the region to pressurise Iran to change course and allow that momentum to determine the choice over military strikes. The US elections of November 2006 demonstrated that Americans are ready for a new approach to national security. Surveys and opinion polls in Europe also confirm a large transatlantic consensus for policies that are effective; policies that reflect a principled and lucid assessment of the best way to achieve national security goals. There is growing repudiation in the pre-emptive use of military force, and a desire for US and European governments to use all the tools in their foreign policy toolkit (diplomatic, economic, intelligence) to tackle complex security challenges.
A second theme is the contrast between the disastrous costs of an unprovoked attack on Iran and the potential lasting benefits of a serious dialogue with Iran. There is broad agreement among military and intelligence experts that there is no good military solution to this problem. While an attack on Iran would have disastrous costs and consequences, without achieving the intended results, the potential benefits of a constructive and open dialogue with Iran are substantial. Building a direct relationship with the government and people of Iran is likely to pay off domestically, for the region, and for the rest of the world.
A third then is that smart, tough-minded multilateral diplomacy - of the kind that has just been applied to North Korea to stop, seal and ultimately disable its nuclear facilities as part of a grand bargain - works, even in the most difficult of circumstances. Diplomatic options with Iran are not only less risky than military options but also more likely to produce real and long-lasting progress - and are a long way from being exhausted.
It will not be easy for the US administration to talk with Iran - nor for some Iranian officials to talk to Washington - and any agreement will require both sides to step back from their red lines and swallow some bitter medicine. But the illusive middle ground is still available for negotiations to develop. Iran may save face, for example, by running its centrifuges without uranium hexafluoride, while the IAEA Board may rest assured that this is unlikely to allow Iran to solve the principle puzzles eluding its mastery of the technology. However, the broad outlines of the negotiation that has to take place are already known to diplomats on both sides, outlined in a communication sent by Tehran to Washington in April 2003 - although the hard work of devising mutually acceptable trade-offs has yet to begin. One such trade-off -- allowing Iran to enrich uranium at the low levels needed for nuclear energy production, provided that UN inspectors were given full access to Iran's nuclear energy facilities -- is supported by a bipartisan majority of Americans according to a recent opinion poll.
A final theme is the need to look at the big picture in the Middle East and globally. A smart, farsighted Iran policy will help stabilise the region and enable progress to be made towards some of US and Europe's most important shared foreign policy goals.
Thus, there is an urgent need to halt the escalating rhetoric and to get serious about diplomatic engagement with Iran across a range of issues. The US administration needs to openly recognize that policy, not regime, change is the goal. The cost of not talking to Iran is unacceptably high, and getting higher. It is undermining regional stability and global hopes of stemming nuclear proliferation. While there is no guarantee that talks with Iran would succeed, the refusal of the US to talk is increasing the likelihood of transatlantic failure in too many important areas.
Best regards
Ian Davis
[ENDS]
We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.
Best wishes
For and on behalf of DK Matai
Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)
____________________________________________________________________________
ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses opportunities and threats arising from climate chaos; radical poverty; geo-politics, organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews; pandemics; and financial systems. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 100 countries: including several from the House of Lords, House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10's Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial institutions, scientific corporates and voluntary organisations as well as over 750 Professors from academic centres of excellence worldwide.
The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please do not forward or use the material circulated without permission and full attribution.
____________________________________________________________________________
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Posted by ATCA at February 19, 2007 03:04 AM
From what I’ve read about a possible attack on Iran, it seems unlikely it will happen because of the great and inevitable loss of innocent lives that would ensue since Iranian nuclear plants are located close to civilian areas.
It would simply be disastrous if the U.S. (or Israel) decided to bomb Iran on top of all the carnage that’s been inflicted on Iraq – it would just make things even worse for the US’s image and it would make it even more difficult in the future to use diplomatic means to solve conflicts in the Middle East.
Dr Davis is clearly right to stress how important it is to put as much effort as possible into finding a solution through diplomatic means. To threaten Iran like the Bush administration is doing is a strategy which could easily backfire.
Let’s hope that the Bush administration will realise that the only wise thing to do is to allow Iran to enrich uranium at the low levels needed for nuclear energy production (provided that UN inspectors will be given full access to Iran's nuclear energy facilities). It may not eradicate the risk that Iran may decide to produce atomic bombs in the future, but we have to accept that neither the U.S. nor Europe will probably ever be able to eradicate that risk without having to bomb Iran and risk making relations with the Middle East even worse than they already are.
It’s time for the Bush administration to wise up and to realize that using threats or violence will only make things worse in the long term.
Peace
What all western commentators fail to appreciate is the other viewpoint. Why should Iran not have a Nuclear defense program? I am against all nuclear weapons, but hey, let us show a little fairness here.
How would you like it if you were unable to develop technologies and defense systems in your country without the approval of other hypocritical and dangerous states?
Iran is not the rogue state here. It is the US, the UK and Israel who fly in the face of global opposition into serious conflicts. Iran is treated like some terrible global danger, yet Iran has attacked no one in the last 100 years, there has never been an Iranian terrorist apprehended anywhere in the world, there is no Iranian terrorist cell, in fact, Iran's only crime is that it kicked out the Americans and British that were looting the country of its wealth for 80 years and they held a bunch of American embassy staff hostage for a year, without harming a single one I may add.
It may be true that Iran gives financial and pollitical support to ligitimate groups such as Hizbullah, but these are only terrorist organisations in the eyes of a handful of Western governments. Hizbullah was democratically elected and its political fight against the occupation of Arab lands by people from Beverley Hills, and Europe is a perfectly ligitimate grievance.
On the other side you have America and Britain who have dropped bombs on about fifty other countries during the same period, most of them on civilians. The only places the US and and UK have not dropped bombs and sent in forces are countries that have a nuclear defense capability.
Does that tell you anything?
As long as Iran has no means of defending itself against these aggressors, the US and its pals will continue to dictate the agenda, an agenda which is foreign and self serving.
Taomaster: They are scared of nuclear bombs? America is known for its double standards. How is america to heal thyself now? When both parties are fighting like the muslim factions.
Great points, Taomaster. The US and Britain are the conquerers--the ones whom appoint themselves world-liberators--whom have the most nukes collectively in the world; whom absorb the wealth of other nations, so that theirs can continue?
gosh - it makes me laugh; to think we human beings, are so arrogant to believe we are an intelligent species.
When the north and south begin their quarrels-the world will be doomed to follow the path of total destruction.
what a shame.. it is such a beautiful planet, so much to offer to everyone on it.
it's ironic; that the most powerful, strongest, wisest, most intelligent, and highest educated(or not); are the ones destroying the planet; as they succumb to the anvils of evil, through greed, corruption and ego-compliance. Odd, how they are "actually" the weakest links in society?
I find it odd; that the US and UK--demand no other country in the world have nukes, except theirs?
I like my heat and hydro, and food. But, you know? There comes a time, we must realize, we in the western world; ride on the backs of the dead..from across the other side of the globe.
I don't know about anyone else; but, it gives me a certain degree of guilt, shame, remorse and helplessness; in knowing this truths.
The Easy way to Total Nuclear Disarmament: Wishful thinking vs Realizable Goal
Achieving a world devoid of nuclear weapons is simple.
We just need to track the same steps that we followed. Let’s go back to the first creation of the N-bomb in 1945, the Trinity, developed by the US.
It is a classic case of the US leading by example. Once the US showed the world what it was capable of, the production of Trinity (and the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki), it didn’t take too long for every other capable country to produce their own. The then USSR, UK, France and a list of states followed suit.
Simple. You have it, why can’t I? And deterrence has been an important rhetoric ever since and their reason for Nuclear arms.
The world’s countries are now racing towards more and more weapons, advancement in their missile technology and trying to outdo each other in the deadly arms race.
If the world (especially the US) is so particular about Iran and North Korea not getting their hands on the weapons, then they have to practice what they preach. Yes, obvious. But the fact that it is obvious does not mean it needs no reiteration.
Lots of arms regulations and Disarmament agreements – Non-proliferation treaty (NPT), Nuclear Weapons Free Zones (NWFZ), Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), Partial Test Ban Treaty etc - have been created to one end. Phase out nuclear weapons from the world.
Why is it so hard to understand?
Let’s come to the solution at hand. All we need to do is start with the US. Let the US once again ‘lead by example’. Let the world follow the ‘leader’ but this time instead of creating the N-bombs, let them start disarming, not just dismantling, but complete disarmament.
That means reduction of Active Warheads from their respective nuclear stockpiles. The US and Russia each have more than 5000 active warheads and the UK, France, China, India and Pakistan together boast hundreds of active warheads. It is so ironic because these are the very same countries that talk about spreading peace and prosperity in the world.
Isn’t that the world (civil society, not Governments) wants and needs?
When the US does this, it will no doubt be a Confidence Building Measure (CBM) for every other nation that is a nuclear state or those aspiring to be one. That is why, the first biggest step should be the US’s.
It might seem outrageous to governments, defense analysts and the ‘decision-makers’ of foreign policy to even think of this possibility. But what is actually outrageous is that they don’t get that it’s what the people of the world want. The collective majority.
Now after the Iraq war, the American public image has been so tarnished that it can only be regained by gaining the world’s confidence. The ‘super-power’ image is not something one should strive for, because there is a negative egotistical stigma attached to the word ‘power’ when it applies to countries. And when we want to create a nuclear weapons free world, we can forgo this very word, idea, and concept of who is the biggest power because that in itself can be a major factor in one’s perception of themselves and others.
If the US wants to be loved and embraced by the world, it has to shed its current unilateral stance and be open to truly multilateral endeavors. If it wants to fight terrorism around the world, it should spend more on humanitarian needs and collaborations than (hundreds of billions) on futile wars. It has to understand that terrorism is a concept not a physical entity that can be crushed by brute force.
By complete disarmament, the US can truly gain the world’s trust. These Confidence-Building Measures are the greatest change that can psychologically make other nuclear states like India and Pakistan disarm completely and even stop nuclear aspiring states like North Korea or Iran.
If the US decides to ‘lead by example’ in this case, it can create waves of positive change and can thereby change the course of the arms imbroglio in the long-term.
Though the first logical steps would be to become signatories of the NPT (188 sovereign states), the CTBT (176 states), the possible Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) and many more it would make more sense to also implement a No-Use Treaty. A Treaty of this sort may seem unachievable and infeasible but this should be in the big picture because we have to see ourselves as a world going towards complete nuclear disarmament and peace. This has to come from within, as the world has to realize the impact of long-term security that can arise. Of course, other aspects to be focused on are the conversion of High Enriched Uranium (HEU) to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU), halting the production of plutonium and other fissile material as would be included in the FMCT.
http://acchor.blogspot.com
www.AccessibleHorizonFilms.com
The Easy way to Total Nuclear Disarmament: Wishful thinking vs Realizable Goal
Achieving a world devoid of nuclear weapons is simple.
We just need to track the same steps that we followed. Let’s go back to the first creation of the N-bomb in 1945, the Trinity, developed by the US.
It is a classic case of the US leading by example. Once the US showed the world what it was capable of, the production of Trinity (and the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki), it didn’t take too long for every other capable country to produce their own. The then USSR, UK, France and a list of states followed suit.
Simple. You have it, why can’t I? And deterrence has been an important rhetoric ever since and their reason for Nuclear arms.
The world’s countries are now racing towards more and more weapons, advancement in their missile technology and trying to outdo each other in the deadly arms race.
If the world (especially the US) is so particular about Iran and North Korea not getting their hands on the weapons, then they have to practice what they preach. Yes, obvious. But the fact that it is obvious does not mean it needs no reiteration.
Lots of arms regulations and Disarmament agreements – Non-proliferation treaty (NPT), Nuclear Weapons Free Zones (NWFZ), Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), Partial Test Ban Treaty etc - have been created to one end. Phase out nuclear weapons from the world.
Why is it so hard to understand?
Let’s come to the solution at hand. All we need to do is start with the US. Let the US once again ‘lead by example’. Let the world follow the ‘leader’ but this time instead of creating the N-bombs, let them start disarming, not just dismantling, but complete disarmament.
That means reduction of Active Warheads from their respective nuclear stockpiles. The US and Russia each have more than 5000 active warheads and the UK, France, China, India and Pakistan together boast hundreds of active warheads. It is so ironic because these are the very same countries that talk about spreading peace and prosperity in the world.
Isn’t that the world (civil society, not Governments) wants and needs?
When the US does this, it will no doubt be a Confidence Building Measure (CBM) for every other nation that is a nuclear state or those aspiring to be one. That is why, the first biggest step should be the US’s.
It might seem outrageous to governments, defense analysts and the ‘decision-makers’ of foreign policy to even think of this possibility. But what is actually outrageous is that they don’t get that it’s what the people of the world want. The collective majority.
Now after the Iraq war, the American public image has been so tarnished that it can only be regained by gaining the world’s confidence. The ‘super-power’ image is not something one should strive for, because there is a negative egotistical stigma attached to the word ‘power’ when it applies to countries. And when we want to create a nuclear weapons free world, we can forgo this very word, idea, and concept of who is the biggest power because that in itself can be a major factor in one’s perception of themselves and others.
If the US wants to be loved and embraced by the world, it has to shed its current unilateral stance and be open to truly multilateral endeavors. If it wants to fight terrorism around the world, it should spend more on humanitarian needs and collaborations than (hundreds of billions) on futile wars. It has to understand that terrorism is a concept not a physical entity that can be crushed by brute force.
By complete disarmament, the US can truly gain the world’s trust. These Confidence-Building Measures are the greatest change that can psychologically make other nuclear states like India and Pakistan disarm completely and even stop nuclear aspiring states like North Korea or Iran.
If the US decides to ‘lead by example’ in this case, it can create waves of positive change and can thereby change the course of the arms imbroglio in the long-term.
Though the first logical steps would be to become signatories of the NPT (188 sovereign states), the CTBT (176 states), the possible Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) and many more it would make more sense to also implement a No-Use Treaty. A Treaty of this sort may seem unachievable and infeasible but this should be in the big picture because we have to see ourselves as a world going towards complete nuclear disarmament and peace. This has to come from within, as the world has to realize the impact of long-term security that can arise. Of course, other aspects to be focused on are the conversion of High Enriched Uranium (HEU) to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU), halting the production of plutonium and other fissile material as would be included in the FMCT.
http://acchor.blogspot.com
www.AccessibleHorizonFilms.com
Amen and amen
peace comes from peace not, I've got enough bombs to destroy life as we know it.
The US should be the leaders and blast all of our nuclear bombs into space for a great fireworks show.
I believe such an act would be followed with a global applause, and much dancing in the streets.
We are stuck in a very old tug of war, someone has to have the courage to let go of the rope.
True leaders listen to their people.
WE WANT TO LET GO OF THE ROPE!
Some country has to be the first to say no to war. The country that does will be highly respected.
derek
It is patently disgraceful, even pompous, to attempt lecturing Iran on nuclear 'temperance', especially if you are the United States.
It's quite easy to see actually before the deadline, that it's going to be a stalemate. We don't need Einstein's Intelligence to know this. Neither of the two parties have any saints in it. So, it's quite easy to see where it will head.
Dear Taomaster,
I had not been to this thread until last night. After reading your posts I was silent and went to bed. Asolutely nothing needed to be said and I still feel the same way. Thank you for speaking out so wonderfuly
And what is best, you point out to the simple facts.
Are any of the "victims" interested in simple facts...or just play the victims?
And Vladimir Puttin has already made it public. Several nations are rushing into getting more weapons to defend themselves from being invaded. He said that they listen to speeches on democracy but he does not see these countries being treated democratically. And he also said that they (those countries) have the right to know who will be the next on the political/military agenda. This was on the news!
And what if they all unite?
All the theoretical/scientific/spiritual blah blah blah are just words if facts are not taken seriously.
Drop the dominant ego and face the facts.
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(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)And Vladimir Puttin has already made it public.
And what is best, you point out to the simple f
Dear Taomaster,
I had not been to this
It's quite easy to see actually before the dead
It is patently disgraceful, even pompous, to at
None of this will work because you speak in abstracts. The only real solution is to remove the Bush/Cheyney kabal from office by any means available. It seems increduble to me that a President can be impeached for an indiscreet office affair with a willing and pliant secretary, but he cannot be impeached for lying about the reasons for going to war, for embarking on an illegal war without UN backing, for being the cause of three quarters of a million deaths in just three years and for misplacing 20billion dollars - mostly into the hands of the corrupt and murderous.
America has become the sick nation of the world and the only solution is to surgically remove the cancer which is Bush. Surely there must be some legal recourse. Stop pointing the finger at solutions out there.
AMERICA, HEAL THYSELF!