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Ray Kurzweil: 2007,What are you Optimistic about?

DK Matai - February 06, 2007

We are grateful to the world famous inventor and innovator Ray Kurzweil, based in Massachusetts, USA, for, "Question 2007: What are you optimistic about? Why?" Below is a picture of Ray receiving the National Medal of Technology from President Bill Clinton eight years ago:

rayk.jpg

Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates has called Ray Kurzweil,
"the best at predicting the future of artificial intelligence."

Ray Kurzweil has been described as "the restless genius" by the Wall Street Journal, and "the ultimate thinking machine" by Forbes. Inc. magazine ranked him 8th among entrepreneurs in the United States, calling him the "rightful heir to Thomas Edison," and PBS included Ray as one of 16 "revolutionaries who made America," along with other inventors of the past two centuries. As one of the leading inventors of our time, Ray was the principal developer of the first CCD flat-bed scanner, the first omni-font optical character recognition, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition. Ray's web site Kurzweil AI.net has over one million readers. Among Ray's many honours, he is the recipient of the USD 500,000 MIT-Lemelson Prize, the world's largest for innovation. In 1999, he received the National Medal of Technology, the nation's highest honour in technology, from President Clinton in a White House ceremony. And in 2002, he was inducted into the National Inventor's Hall of Fame, established by the US Patent Office. He has received thirteen honorary Doctorates and honours from three US Presidents. Ray has written five books, four of which have been national best sellers. The Age of Spiritual Machines has been translated into 9 languages and was the number one best selling book on Amazon in science. Ray's latest book, The Singularity is Near, was a New York Times best seller, and has been the number one book on Amazon in both science and philosophy. He states:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Question 2007: What are you optimistic about? Why?

I'm confident about energy, the environment, longevity, and wealth; I'm optimistic (but not necessarily confident) of the avoidance of existential downsides; and I'm hopeful (but not necessarily optimistic) about a repeat of 9-11 (or worse). Optimism exists on a continuum in-between confidence and hope. Let me take these in order. I am confident that the acceleration and expanding purview of information technology will solve the problems with which we are now preoccupied within twenty years.

Consider energy. We are awash in energy (10,000 times more than we need to meet all of our needs falls on the Earth) but we are not very good at capturing it, but that will change with full nanotechnology based assembly of macro objects at the nano scale controlled by massively parallel information processes, which will be feasible within twenty years. Even though our energy needs are projected to triple within 20 years, we'll capture that .0003 of the sunlight needed to meet all of our energy needs with no use of fossil fuels using extremely inexpensive, highly efficient, lightweight, nano engineered solar panels, and store the energy in highly distributed (and, therefore, safe) nanotechnology-based fuel cells. Solar power is now providing one part in a thousand of our energy needs but that percentage is doubling every two years, which means multiplying by a thousand in 20 years. Almost all of the discussions I've seen about energy and its consequences such as global warming fail to consider the ability of future nanotechnology based solutions to solve this problem. This development will be motivated not just by concern for the environment, but by the USD 2 trillion we spend annually on energy. This is already a major area of venture funding.

Consider health. As of just recently, we now have the tools to re-program biology. This is also at an early stage but is progressing through the same exponential growth of information technology, which we see in every aspect of biological progress. The amount of genetic data we have sequenced has doubled every year and the price per base pair has come down commensurately. The first genome cost a billion dollars, NIH is now starting a project to collect a million genomes at a thousand dollars a piece. We can turn genes off with RNA interference, add new genes (to adults) with new reliable forms of gene therapy, and turn on and off proteins and enzyme at critical stages of disease progression. We are gaining the means to model, simulate, and reprogram disease and aging processes as information processes. These technologies will be a thousand times more powerful than they are today in ten years, and it will be a very different world in terms of our ability to turn off disease and aging.

Consider prosperity. The inherent 50 percent deflation rate inherent in information technology and its growing purview is causing the decline of poverty. The poverty rate in Asia, according to the World Bank, declined by 50 percent over the past ten years due to information technology, and will decline at current rates by 90 percent in the next ten years. All areas of the world are being affected, including Africa which is now undergoing a rapid invasion of the Internet. Even Sub Saharan Africa had a 5% growth rate last year.

Okay, so what am I optimistic, but not necessarily confident, about?

All of these technologies have existential downsides. We are already living with enough thermonuclear weapons to destroy all mammalian life on this planet, which incidentally are still on a hair trigger. Remember these? They're still there, and they represent an existential threat.

We have a new existential threat which is the ability of a destructively minded group or individual to reprogram a biological virus to be more deadly, more communicable, or (most daunting of all) more stealthy (that is, having a longer incubation period so that the early spread is not detected). The good news is that we do have the tools to set up a rapid response system, like the one we have for software viruses. It took us five years to sequence HIV, but we can now sequence a virus in a day or two. RNA interference can turn viruses off since viruses are genes albeit pathological ones. Bill Joy and I have proposed setting up a rapid response system that could detect a new virus, sequence it, design an RNAi medication (or a safe antigen-based vaccine) and gear up production in a matter of days. The methods exist, but a working rapid response system does not yet exist. We need to put one in place quickly.

So I'm optimistic that we will make it through without suffering an existential catastrophe. It would be helpful if we gave the two existential threats I discuss above a higher priority.

And, finally, what am I hopeful, but not necessarily optimistic, about?

Who would have thought right after September 11, 2001 that we would go five years without another destructive incident at that or greater scale? That seemed very unlikely at the time, but despite all the subsequent turmoil in the world, it happened. I am hopeful that this will continue.

[ENDS]

What are your thoughts, observations and views? What are you optimistic about?

With warm wishes to you and family


DK with family

DK Matai
The Philanthropia, ATCA, mi2g.net

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Posted by DK Matai at February 6, 2007 02:03 AM

Comments

I am optimistic about the perfection of the evolutionary scheme of things of the universe.

Why, because I know it.

Harb

I am optimistic about the fact that our DNA will change alongside the changes the earth is going through. We will adapt and we do not have to do that much about it. Just accept, appreciate and do not resist it. Indeed, it is all in the scheme of things.

Mieke

You are absolutely right Mieke! We and the earth and the scheme of things are all one!!

Harb

I am optimistic that Harb Singh's best days are in front of him. Why? Because he deserves it! A philosopher of the (highest) level-he integrates the infinity of the cosmic mind into his way of being!
Todd

I am optimistic that humanity and the systems of the planet will achieve equilibrium. A balance of power and energy exchange.

I am optimistic that there will be a natural culling of the elements of humanity that create an imbalance.

I am optimistic that the death of the old guard with it's illusions and fictitious beliefs systems it happening as I write.

I am optimistic that in the next two years the Revolution of wisdom and intelligence will reach a crescendo as all things built on ignorance collapse.

I am optimistic that a massive transfer of power is being initiated from the few that benefit to the detriment of the many, to the many that will benefit all equally.

I am optimistic that destructive forces will actually result in the establishment of equilibrium.

I am optimistic that many will get a clue and join in participating in our collective success rather than resisting it.

I am optimistic that we will end disease, energy issues, poverty, hunger world wide by 2012.

I am optimistic that global chaos during the process (depending on the amount of resistance put up) will give rise to new systems and a new humanity.

I am optimistic that just as Copernicus and Galileo transformed the world and science with ideas thought preposterous, so will the ideas of those that represent the new consciousness that is evolving.

"What are you Optimistic about?"

That I can change and what is real can never change.

Love, Char


I read what Kurzweil wrote, sounds familiar, I agree with a lot of it.

However the human body was perfectly designed, it is the raw materials that are being put into the body that are flawed in conjunction with enviromental toxins the body must process that are an issue.

Plants were designed to manufacture and package the raw materials needed by the body, whoever designed these self replicating mobile factories was a genius.

I discovered a very powerful way to fight viruses. Hopefully I get credit :). By not taking aspirin or any fever reducer (except in rare circumstances). Yes, this is another bit of clueless advice given by the medical profession. They think a fever is a defect, when it is actually the body taking care of itself.

The body can stop viral replication by raising it's temperature.

The other thing I discovered is that the whole viral thing is how species wide genetic modifications (programming) are propagated and may be an important part of evolution and adaptation. The human body is already smart enough to make it's own genetic changes. It turns genetic switches on and off all the time mostly based on the needs created by the environment. What this means is science assumed a defect based on it’s premise that we are an accident and not designed.

The other thing is do not take decongestants and cold medicine, the body is protecting itself by coating the mucous membrane with antibody laden mucous. There is only slight if any discomfort actually if the bodies’ production of mucous is not impaired by a lack of raw chemicals. Most people suffer from defective mucous production.

It is right along with the advice from the medical establishment to not breast feed babies but to give them baby formula instead because they owned stock in the companies. This caused billions of dollars in damage to the general population which if the public felt so inclined could sue them to recover damages, ignorance and is no excuse.

But what we find is there is no real medical authority it is actually an illusion, created by the medical industrial complex, the reality is the medical industry (although improving) is a lot of opinion based pseudo science driven by profit. It is opinion based because most do not have a clue how the body works.

The whole method for testing drugs is seriously flawed and consumers are not being warned that drugs can damage and interfere with the body’s biochemical processes and metabolism. In order to provide proper due diligence the pharmaceutical company must map out how a designer chemical effects all the chemical pathways. Simply testing to make sure people don’t drop dead and that a single symptom is eliminated does not cut it for drug testing. What is interesting is that in spite of the testing people are dropping dead from drugs approved as safe.

I am also optimistic that people will stop using microwaves to cook food. Microwaves destroy the nanomachinery being manufactured by plants creating dead food.

Again here we have mainstream science impaired by it's belief be(lie)f that everything is an accident.

We don't need to waste time trying to convince them either natural market forces will reward those not impaired by fictions.

I am optimistic that:

A smart company for will be doing R & D on advanced body diagnostics and develop a system so someone can walk in get a checkup and a tune up just like a car. For example a magnesium deficiency cannot be determined by measuring blood levels. Currently no cost effective method exists to determine this.

Another smart company would develop a quick testing method to determine the mineral and vitamin content of produce so that it can be certified for nutritional. This way a consumer could determine if the produce was grown in nutrient poor soil and if they are were just eating something that appears to be a vegetable. Produce in the US has seen a 40 – 60% reduction in mineral content in the last three decades as a result of using chemical fertilizers, factory farming, and the focus on profit over quality.

This is also why so much pesticide and other chemicals must be used to treat the symptoms of plants; healthy plants have a natural resistance just like humans to pests and disease.

Happily we don’t need any legislation, we just need consumer awareness, and one produce company that cares (which earns them a huge market share) to start labeling their products as tested and certified for nutritional content.

Consumer demand will be the legislation of the future, thanks to information generals that work on behalf of the population gathering unbiased intelligence.

"What are you Optimistic about?" ~DK

What would you do?....you make the choice. Don't look for a punch line, there isn't one. Read it anyway. My question is: Would you have made the same choice?

*****

At a fundraising dinner for a school that serves learning-disabled children, the father of one of the students delivered a speech that would never be forgotten by all who attended. After extolling the school and its dedicated staff, he offered a question: "When not interfered with by outside influences, everything nature does is done with perfection. Yet my son, Shay, cannot learn things as other children do. He cannot understand things as other children do. Where is the natural order of things in my son?"

The audience was stilled by the query.

The father continued. "I believe, that when a child like Shay, physically and mentally handicapped comes into the world, an opportunity to realize true human nature presents itself, and it comes in the way other people treat that child."

Then he told the following story:

Shay and his father had walked past a park where some boys Shay knew were playing baseball. Shay asked, "Do you think they'll let me play?" Shay's father knew that most of the boys would not want someone like Shay on their team, but the father also understood that if his son were allowed to play, it would give him a much-needed sense of belonging and some confidence to be accepted by others in spite of his handicaps.

Shay's father approached one of the boys on the field and asked (not expecting much) if Shay could play. The boy looked around for guidance and said, "We're losing by six runs and the game is in the eighth inning. I guess he can be on our team and we'll try to put him in to bat in the ninth inning."

Shay struggled over to the team's bench and, with a broad smile, put on a team shirt. His Father watched with a small tear in his eye and warmth in his heart. The boys saw the father's joy at his son being accepted. In the bottom of the eighth inning, Shay's team scored a few runs but was still behind by three. In the top of the ninth inning, Shay put on a glove and played in the right field. Even though no hits came his way, he was obviously ecstatic just to be in the game and on the field, grinning from ear to ear as his father waved to him from the stands. In the bottom of the ninth inning, Shay's team scored again. Now, with two outs and the bases loaded, the potential winning run was on base and Shay was scheduled to be next at bat.

At this juncture, do they let Shay bat and give away their chance to win the game? Surprisingly, Shay was given the bat. Everyone knew that a hit was all but impossible because Shay didn't even know how to hold the bat properly, much less connect with the ball.

However, as Shay stepped up to the plate, the pitcher, recognizing that the other team was putting winning aside for this moment in Shay's life, moved in a few steps to lob the ball in softly so Shay could at least make contact. The first pitch came and Shay swung clumsily and missed. The pitcher again took a few steps forward to toss the ball softly towards Shay. As the pitch came in, Shay swung at the ball and hit a slow ground ball right back to the pitcher.

The game would now be over. The pitcher picked up the soft grounder and could have easily thrown the ball to the first baseman. Shay would have been out and that would have been the end of the game.

Instead, the pitcher threw the ball right over the first baseman's head, out of reach of all team mates. Everyone from the stands and both teams started yelling, "Shay, run to first! Run to first!" Never in his life had Sha y ever run that far, but he made it to first base. He scampered down the baseline, wide-eyed and startled.

Everyone yelled, "Run to second, run to second!" Catching

his breath, Shay awkwardly ran towards second, gleaming and struggling to make it to the base. By the time Shay rounded towards second base, the right fielder had the ball ... the smallest guy on their team who now had his first chance to be the hero for his team. He could have thrown the ball to the second-baseman for the tag, but he understood the pitcher's intentions so he, too, intentionally threw the ball high and far over the third-baseman's head. Shay ran toward third base deliriously as the runners ahead of him circled the bases toward home.

All were screaming, "Shay, Shay, Shay, all the Way Shay"

Shay reached third base because the opposing shortstop ran to help him by turning him in the direction of third base, and shouted, "Run to third! Shay, run to third!"

As Shay rounded third, the boys from both teams, and the spectators, were on their feet screaming, "Shay, run home! Run home!" Shay ran to home, stepped on the plate, and was cheered as the hero who hit the grand slam and won the game for his team.

"That day", said the father softly with tears now rolling down his face, "the boys from both teams helped bring a piece of true love and humanity into this world".

Shay didn't make it to another summer. He died that winter, having never forgotten being the hero and making his father so happy, and coming home and seeing his Mother tearfully embrace her little hero of the day!

*****

AND NOW A LITTLE FOOTNOTE TO THIS STORY: We all send thousands of jokes through the e-mail without a second thought, but when it comes to sending messages about life choices, people hesitate. The crude, vulgar, and often obscene pass freely through cyberspace, but public discussion about decency is too often suppressed in our schools and workplaces.

If you're thinking about forwarding this message, chances are that you're probably sorting out the people in your address book who aren't the "appropriate" ones to receive this type of message. Well, the person who sent you this believes that we all can make a difference. We all have thousands of opportunities every single day to help realize the "natural order of things." So many seemingly trivial interactions between two people present us with a choice: Do we pass along a little spark of love and humanity or do we pass up those opportunities and leave the world a little bit colder in the process?

A wise man once said every society is judged by how it treats it's least fortunate amongst them.

You now have two choices:

1. Delete

2. Forward

May your day, be a Shay Day.

BUT REMEMBER THE FIRST QUESTION, WHAT CHOICE WOULD YOU HAVE MADE ???

~Author Unknown

"What are you Optimistic about?" ~DK

The human heart.

I was athirst, so I began digging in the dust.
The deeper I went within the well made me moist & soft.
The mud covered what I treasured, but could not see.
When the water came and washed the darkness away,
I saw the most beautiful diamond – a perfect reflection.
To behold the human heart is like being kissed by God.
I’ve lost my breath within the sun’s light.

Love, Char

I think we are finding our global discussion.
I think we are finding our global voice.

I believe we are on the ride of a life time.
I believe it will spread like wildfire.

The soil is fertile and the sun is coming up and a multitude of fresh sprouts are growing in the ashes of our dysfunctional past.

my heart is filled with hope.

doodleman

and optmism................

actually optimism........yo

yo..doodooman...dude..u realy do have a way with words...wow...we are thrilled and tickled to death by your prolixity! whoa!

yo diablo.....homey......sorry I do tend to go on and on when I get excited....and I do tend to get excited a lot........whoa and whoa unto you....diablo dude.

I am optimistic that the jyotishi from Rishikesh that appeared outside my house is not God. They tell me it was an Indian saint, God manifested in human form. A friend said that sounds like Shirdi Baba, you are so blessed how auspicious. I said I hope he was not God but a real live person because he made my heart soar and my knees week.

My friend said oh you better hope you don’t see him again because if you do then he was not God.

I said, gleefully, good because I am not looking for God I found him along time ago. I don’t need a visit from God he gets enough love from me.

So I am optimistic that an old friend visited me that day. Because the details are now unfolding. I now remember the plans we made how we excitedly anticipated this physical lifetime.

Darwins theory of evolution obviously did'nt stop at humans. The next stage of evolution will be humans creating a species more intelligent than itself.

This is already underway.

Every emotion and thought we have will be shown to be a product of energy interacting with machine (as we would create such a machine in future).

So what will be still left to be understood? Nothing, because superintelligence will have all the (right) answers.

This will be nirvana achieved not by looking inside but by looking outside--a perfect riposte to the go-inside theory of the mystics (which has a lot of merit too).

Hey Char! #10 was very nice!
Just a bit of acknowledgment in case
you thought yourself invisible. Keith~

I feel optimistic about IntentBlog's rightful

place in the history of the web's "terrible twos".

What better way is there to bring together peoples

from all over the globe? Well...almost everywhere.

The Internet may not be the Final Frontier,

but it is certainly where we will learn to conquer

our national prejudices and self-defeating bigotry.

We have to get better at compromising in negotiations.

We have to budge and give a little more than we have previously.

We need to respect others and recognize their rights

of liberty, fair justice and the right to pursue happiness.

But first we must know their dreams and what they

wish to make of this world, as we need to ask ourselves.

I'm optimistic that we can find some common ground

or at least realize we are already standing on it!

Peace to everyone today! Keith~

All his views are fine, except for the one that considers "Singularity". If you haven't read his book "Singularity is near", Ray argues that Technology and Humans will incur unprecedented growth where Technology will become more human (we will have computers matching human decision skills). Machines and Humans will combine to achieve the missing link in a peace / joy defecient ecosystem.

That is a very bold prediction. Machines might turn human, but how can Intuition, Imagination, Desires, Freedom and Celeberation be a part of machines? That is the question for Ray.

Sameer R, you have some problem with that "Singularity". Let me try to explain to you how i "envision" (imagination, intuition etc.)it:

The singularity is the pulsating field. It is the breathing in and breathing out of the ONE, the I AM (the Alfa and the Omega). So the I AM is above the singularity and the attributes you mention can therefore never be part of machines.

The I AM wants to experience itself in infinite possibilities, so technology and humans will merge in some way but the operator stands above it all.

It became clear(er) to me in the thread of DK about holistic relativity, Spiritual planes and Consciousness where he mentions at post 47:

1. The Supra-Universal Consciousness "Dayal";
2. The Universal Consciousness "Kal";
3. The individual "body + mind + spirit";

Look under Archives hereabove for the relevant thread.

To me the Universal Consciousness "Kal" could be the singularity Ray is talking about.

A good book to also read about this subject is:

"The Field" by Lynne McTaggart, ISBN 90 202-8339-1

No human invention can connect to the Unified Force except through man. So none can overtake him.

Harb

Harb, what if humans were themselves an 'invention'? How can you discount that possibility? Of course, the ego wants to believe it is at the top of the pyramid, but I can believe that we may be just a link in the evolutionary chain where future creations (created by us, like if we were created by another) will continue the dance.

Emotions, thoughts, feelings and intuition can be shown in future machines as interactions of energy with machine (body). There may be nothing so sacrosanct about them so as to preclude the possibility that machines can not be engineered to posses these qualities and more.

Of course this will mean a huge existential crises for us humans, especially humans who think that the above qualities somehow make them special and unique and put them at the top.

We have witnessed biological evolution in the past, now we may see another evolution, where "we" create superhuman machines that are just better machines than us.

It will just prove that the universe progresses infinitely toward infinite complexities and to claim that there is a full-stop after us may just be human vanity after all.

yes, and another possibility is that we were planted here by a society that has survived and evolved for billions of years, they're just beyond our understanding so we can't quite see them. They're just nudging us along until we evolve enough to know they are there.

There have been opportunities for life long before our star was even born.

There are an infinite number of possiblities.

It is arrogent for any one person or any one group to think that they have the only answer.

I live very happy subscribing to none of the belief systems that are currently avalible, leaving me open and respectful to them all.

Playing on this site has been a remarkable experience for me and I find everyones comments insightful. Yay for a place where we can freely express ourselves.

Yay for whatever we become. For now we are what we are, an amazing tapestry of colors and textures.

peace comes from peace and stuff

doodleman


Thank you Keith :-)

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