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British Soldiers Released -- UK-Iran Crisis Lessons

ATCA - April 04, 2007

Both London and Washington DC have cautiously welcomed Wednesday's announcement that Iran is releasing the 15 British soldiers and sailors it has held for nearly two weeks. We are grateful to The Lord Howell of Guildford from The Palace of Westminster for his submission to ATCA, "UK-Iran Crisis Lessons -- Giving Soft Power Some Teeth."

Dear ATCA Colleagues; dear IntentBloggers

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

Both London and Washington DC have cautiously welcomed Wednesday's announcement that Iran is releasing the 15 British soldiers and sailors it has held for nearly two weeks. We are grateful to The Lord Howell of Guildford from The Palace of Westminster for his submission to ATCA, "UK-Iran Crisis Lessons -- Giving Soft Power Some Teeth."

The Right Honourable Lord (David) Howell of Guildford, President of the British Institute of Energy Economics, is a former Secretary of State for Energy and for Transport in the UK Government and an economist and journalist. Lord Howell is Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the House of Lords and Conservative Spokesman on Foreign Affairs. He also Chairs the Windsor Energy Group. Until 2002 he was Chairman of the UK-Japan 21st Century Group, (the high level bilateral forum between leading UK and Japanese politicians, industrialists and academics), which was first set up by Margaret Thatcher and Yasuhiro Nakasone in 1984. In addition he writes a fortnightly column for The JAPAN TIMES in Tokyo, and has done so since 1985. He also writes regularly for the International Herald Tribune. David Howell was the Chairman of the House of Commons Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, 1987-97. He was Chairman of the House of Lords European Sub-Committee on Common Foreign and Security Policy from 1999-2000. In 2001 he was awarded the Grand Cordon of the Order of the Sacred Treasure (Japan). He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: UK-Iran Crisis Lessons -- Giving Soft Power Some Teeth

'Speak softly and carry a big stick' - that was the advice of the ebullient American President ,Theodore (Teddy) Roosevelt, in the early part of the twentieth century and it may still have some relevance today.

The kidnapping by the Iranian revolutionary Guard of fifteen British service personnel in the Shatt-al-Arab waters at the top end of the Arabian Gulf -- and their release today -- raises once again the complex issue of how such situations should best be handled. Whether the captured fifteen are released promptly, which has happened as these words appear, or whether they were going to be held for a prolonged period, the whole incident provides some important lessons for the modern day resolution of international quarrels -- for which Teddy Roosevelt had such a concise answer a century or so ago.

First, his advice about speaking softly is probably more relevant than ever today in this world of globalized media coverage and instant information. Megaphone denunciations by either side were never going to get anywhere in this ugly incident, as British diplomats clearly realized at the outset. Only after a few days, and with the greatest reluctance, did they release the facts showing that the British sailors and marines were captured in Iraqi, not Iranian, waters - a fact which was, of course promptly disputed by the Iranians with counter-facts and assertions, and a hardening of positions all round.

So what about the big stick? In Roosevelt days, and in the days of British imperial dominance, that would of course have meant a gunboat, followed by the might of the British Navy and no doubt a battalion or two of soldiers and marines to bring the kidnappers to their senses.

But that was yesterday. Today blunt military force makes no sense precisely because the world is now such a tight knit network, so that onslaught against any part of it produces paroxysms throughout the whole global system. The Iranians no doubt appreciated that from the start, reckoning that they could therefore proceed with impunity, discounting any direct British intervention or even direct intervention by the United Nations -- despite the fact that the captured personnel were actually operating under a UN mandate in their task of policing Gulf waters.

In this calculation they proved sadly correct. All the UN Security Council could summon up, in face of an outright attack on fifteen people carrying out UN duties, was a slap on the Iranian wrist which Teheran could safely ignore. So there was no big stick there.

But in one important respect the Iranians may have proved wrong, and as out of date as many of the commentators round the world, all talking and assessing the rising tension in the language of past such incidents. There may be no big stick in the old fashioned sense, but in the age of total information and data integration there are some new big sticks which require neither gunboats, nor megaphone protests nor UN resolutions, feeble or otherwise.

Just as Iran, by being an integral part of the world trading and oil supply system, has the power to cause global chaos (for instance by mining the Straits of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Gulf, and blocking eighteen to twenty percent of the world's oil supplies, bringing both energy and financial markets to a state of total crisis), so the reverse applies.

For example, through cutting off Iranian access to the global financial system London, helped by New York, and by the European capitals, can in practice nowadays bring the Iranian economy to its knees.

Already, as part of the pressure on Iran to comply with international rules over civil nuclear development, American and British banks have been preventing the mullahs from collecting the revenues for their oil and gas in dollars. It is only one small step to prevent them selling in euros instead, or indeed selling their oil for hard currency at all.

But financial networks are not the only ones that can be closed down. The Iranian leaders may talk about America as the Great Satan, and the UK as the smaller Satan. But it is on American technology that the aircraft in which they fly around depend; it is American, Japanese and a bit of Russian technology on which their communications and business systems depend; it is on spare parts and components from Western powers that their entire (and rather rundown) energy industry infrastructure depends; and it is on the European economies, of which the UK is one of the largest (after Germany) that Iran relies most heavily for its export markets.

In a dozen ways the oxygen which supplies a modernizing state like Iran can be turned off and its cities paralysed. No need to talk about force, or 'taking out' Iranian nuclear facilities or any other kind of 'hard' retaliation. Soft power retaliation can do the trick and produce the big stick effect in a way that Teddy Roosevelt never dreamt of, and in a way that even today neither the Iranian high command, nor many analysts round the world yet seem to appreciate. In effect, Iran can be closed down.

None of this invalidates the need to proceed in handling this incident, or similar ones if they should regrettably occur, with quiet and subtle exchanges (the soft voice) as far as possible, and as far as indignant public opinion allows. But it is a reminder that there are still 'virtual' big sticks in the armoury of international affairs.

If the present incident brings that lesson home to all countries and governments tempted to flout international law and the rules of civilised global behaviour, some positive benefit will have flowed from an ugly and dangerous situation.


David Howell

[ENDS]

We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes


For and on behalf of DK Matai
Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)
____________________________________________________________________________

ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses opportunities and threats arising from climate chaos; radical poverty; geo-politics, organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews; pandemics; and financial systems. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 100 countries: including several from the House of Lords, House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10's Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial institutions, scientific corporates and voluntary organisations as well as over 750 Professors from academic centres of excellence worldwide.

The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please do not forward or use the material circulated without permission and full attribution.
____________________________________________________________________________
Intelligence Unit | mi2g ATCA The Philanthropia Φ

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Posted by ATCA at April 4, 2007 12:22 PM

Comments

Disregarding international law or U.N. resolutions does not seem to harm, or bother, the United States or Israel very much . . .


You do not want to loose a war? Don't be only white or black, be both, secretly, be on both sides.

America business for sure don't loose on dualistic battlefields... but another field could appear.

Yes-No place for heroes.


Invisible-Flying everywhere
A new sound, a new symphonie
A voice passing through inner wars.

Billions of humans
Sensitive beens
Energetic ripples of hope.

Listen the call
Don't be surprise, be charmed
Be catched by the essence
The end of the little know.

Most excellent and lucid thought from
David Howell, thank you DK for your efforts in this matter.

It was Mr. Urgo Diamu truth as a player that anounced checkmate in Aug 2005 against the opponent played by fiction, thanks to the Internet and the integration of things. Which cannot be turned off. The world body is becoming whole.

It moved like a thief in the night and none knew it was coming and could not prepare to defend against it.

Spirit will now reach deep into politics breaking the formerly egoic hold on these matters.

A mysterious force is at work and a divine plan unfolds.


Dear D.K.

Thanks for handing us the baton! Why am I not surprised
to see them come home safely? The outcome was never in doubt, imho.

I guess you'll not be talking back to us anymore.
If you are reading this now, I am surprised.
If you come back personally and speak I'll be astonished!

Whatever...I still wish you well. Peace, Keith

Will someone explain to me why DK has left the site?

Love to, Hear Good as often as possible!
"To Sleep per chance to Dream".....
A little Shakespear for you tonight
V

"Mysterious Force, Unfolding plans" That sounds Exiting! Even better that a Roller-Coaster! Love it!
V

yellow rose: That name is unfamiliar.
Have you been quietly watching up till now?

We do not know why suddenly he left
and he's not telling.
I saw him post an article on the open thread.
It looks like he got the cold shoulder.
He might have to speak if he wants us to warm back up to him.
I will still enjoy some of his paste jobs, no doubt.
Nice to meet you. Bye!

Dear David, ATCA and all

This morning on the GMA TV show, Fareed Zakaria (editor of Newsweek International) talked with Dianne Sawyer about the politics and psychology of the holding and release of the British sailors.

I always find Zakaria's commentary and insights penetrating -- and educational about how the rest of the world thinks about things, which is often very different from the US view.

For a video of his discussion:

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=3010486

(or click my name)

love, Heath


These type issues including the conflict in the Middle East are petty compared to the issues that are HERE NOW most are not aware of them. The probability is that awareness of these issues will bring many of the world’s conflicts to an end, namely those conflicts that are based on fictional or created issues that are a product of finite thinking and the delusion of separation.

These truth based issues will be faced by every group and region on the planet therefore a whole body approach from a “working as One Mind” effort are going to be needed facilitated by advanced applications of communication and information technology, including the enhancement of human biochemistry. There is no longer any room for any agency to act as being separate from the world body or for any business or industry to operate on a short term profit focus.

Extreme weather (both cyclic and human aggravated), and a human induced lack of genetic variety in food crops, along with tampering with the natural balance of the ecosystem have set the stage for Global Famine and it can happen in 2 – 5 years. Extreme weather increases the rapid spread of plant and animal disease causing agents. It also puts stress on organisms so that their immune systems have an impaired ability to respond to pathogens and toxins. A good example is that The US has been fighting soybean rust with fungicide ever since spores blew in on hurricane Ivan in 2004.

In conjunction with natural threats there are those from biological terrorism that could involve the distribution of stem rust spores. In the cold war both the US and the Soviet Union stockpiled stem rust spores as a biological weapon. Biological weapons can totally eliminate whole sections of a nations food supply, not only at the crop level but also for example the beef industry could be devastated by the spraying of hoof and mouth virus at cattle auction houses or feedlots. Our collective effort to create a universal framework for a life worth living for everyone and abundance and prosperity for all, which is currently impeded by the separatist view of not seeing the world as one interdependent whole body and the fictions created to support this view, will eliminate the elements that give rise to or support terrorism. It is in our move to adapt to the environment and truth based issues in conjunction with infrastructure changes that we will create prosperity and abundance for all. So in dealing with climate threats we also solve the other problems we face.

Global famine could trigger global anarchy and a collapse of the world’s financial systems which are now interdependent. It is as if these threats by some divine design will bring unity amongst all the players of the world body or they can force the destruction and rebuilding of a new humanity. The choice is ours.

This is not a gloom and doom prediction, it is simply a possible effect of humanity not dealing with reality and taking the necessary measures and initiating changes to our current systems. The probability is that humanity will meet the requirements for a life of abundance and prosperity for all in adapting to the dynamic forces of nature and interacting in harmony with the natural systems in place.

The good news is that we can do something about if we act today. Human civilization can become informed and adaptable, but this will require major infrastructure changes using the latest technologies and others that must be quickly developed. One of the first steps will be to stop arguing whose fictions are true and to put our attention on the things that matter, not tabloid sensationalism. This will require the media establishment to resist inclination to attract viewers with sensationalistic non-issues. It will also be driven by the media consumer to not subscribe or give their attention to sensationalistic non-issues.

Many fictional issues are created because some benefit, or use them to manipulate policy and to preserve or create profits or affect the accounting of energy and wealth exchange among economic system participants. Many of these fictions arise from failure to see the world’s systems and participants as a whole.

As you all might guess I spend a lot of time reading the latest research from around the world across multiple disciplines, something your average journalists do not yet do. Not only does it require time it requires a huge working repository of information already acquired over time.

This means that the average researcher or journalist can not sit down and instantly understand and derive new information from existing information. In order for journalists and researchers to understand with a holistic perspective they need to have acquired a huge knowledge base so that they can begin to understand the global systems architecture. This knowledge base takes time to acquire and it is because of this we have a new limited human commodity, humans with an acquired knowledge base.

The volume of new knowledge being produced on a daily basis is huge just to keep up with the new data is a full time effort. For an individual to acquire even a subset of the previously produced knowledge base and keep up with the newly produced data is next to impossible such that those entering a field might not easily acquire the pre-existing knowledge base as well as additional information being added on a weekly basis.

Currently human information processors are very compartmentalized and the flow of information between the compartments is more by happenstance then through a defined process or channel. Yet we live in a world with symbiotic relationships and integrated systems. This would stipulate the requirement for more holistic research and analysis and the development of a new occupational role for multidiscipline experts that communicate with those specialized in specific subject matter or limited scope areas of research. So that we have individuals that operate at the holistic summary level across multiple disciplines and those operating at the detail level. Although we do have people with different degrees in various fields it might be advantageous to develop specific academic programs that are designed to produce summary level experts. This is where a lot of detail understanding is left out to facilitate the acquisition of a broad spread of summary or conceptual knowledge.

There is a good chance that the semantic web may play a big role in facilitating the data exchange between different disciplines.

Another factor in this is actual physical brain capability. The amount of data needing to be acquired and processed may be beyond the scope of the average brain especially one impaired by nutritional deficiency, toxins and stress. This means there needs to be a new focus on performance enhancement of the human brain.

The current methods of intelligence transfer are also inadequate, most apparent in the time it takes from discovery by a few to dissemination to the many. Improved human data acquisition techniques and the enhanced ability to store and process data are essential. The establishment of semantic data pathways with topical affinities would be crucial to the full utilization of intellectual assets and the products of research.

Holistic Information Processing & the New “Hot Intangible Asset” Human data processors with their established knowledge base. This is not unlike the value placed on the “old wise ones” in a community.

One might envision a new measure of intellectual capital and capability in a company. Creating a sum total of the IQ and experience relative to a company based on the individual members, which could directly effect the value of their shares, allowing one to better predict future earnings as a result of the sum of intelligence, creativity, and capability behind the production of a company’s products and services.

Anyone get a funny feeling about the hostages being released?

Iran suddenly releases the hostages without Great Britain fulfilling any of the demands.

This just so happens to take place after Queen Nancy visit Syria.

Is this starting to stink like a dead fish?


Now I also hear Pelosi BOTCHED her meeting in Syria by telling their leadership that Israel was ready to negotiate. Israel immediately told Syria they would never negotiate while Syria supported terrorist.

Way to go Nancy. You dumb cow.

When will we ever learn??? You NEVER send a woman to an Islamic country to represent you. NEVER. It sends the message we are emasculated. Then again, after looking at our country and our unwillingness to be ruthless on the battlefield, maybe we should always send women.


Yes it does. I'm glad they are being released but it does stink to high heaven.

Nancy Pelosi should be arrested when she gets off the plane.

Janet

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