ATCA - June 16, 2007
In regard to Low Probability High Impact & Black Swan events, we are grateful to John Elkington based in London, UK, and presently visiting Sao Paulo, Brazil, for "Diamonds, Clubs, Spades & Hearts."

Dear ATCA Colleagues
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]
We are grateful to:
. John Elkington based in London, UK, and presently visiting Sao Paulo, Brazil, for "Diamonds, Clubs, Spades and Hearts";
. Dr Thierry Malleret based in Geneva, Switzerland, for "The Lesson of Humility in dealing with Black Swans;"
. Andrew Leung based in London, UK, and frequent visitor to China, for "The China Black Swans"; and
. Prof Jean-Pierre Lehmann based in Ouchy and IMD Lausanne, Switzerland, for "Integrating The Black Swan in Corporate Global Trends Analysis";
in response to the ATCA presentation, "Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events -- Considerations for Future Scenarios -- The Opportunity and Risk of Asymmetric Globalisation."
John Elkington has worked in the environmental and sustainable development fields since 1972. A co-founder and then Managing Director of Environmental Data Services (ENDS) in 1978, he also co-founded SustainAbility in 1987. He served as the organisation's Chairman from 1995 to 2005, and is now Chief Entrepreneur. He chairs the Export Credits Guarantee Department's Advisory Council and The Environment Foundation, and sits on advisory boards of organisations like the Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes in Switzerland and Instituto Ethos in Brazil. In 2004, BusinessWeek described him as "a Dean of the Corporate Responsibility movement for Three Decades." John has authored or co-authored 16 books, including 1988's million-selling Green Consumer Guide and Cannibals with Forks: The Triple Bottom Line of 21st Century Business (1997), and has written or co-written some 40 published reports. One current project is a book on social entrepreneurs with Pamela Hartigan of The Schwab Foundation. He is also working closely with The Skoll Foundation on a new 3-year field-building programme in relation to social entrepreneurship. He writes:
Dear DK and Colleagues
Re: Diamonds, Clubs, Spades and Hearts
I was delighted to receive your ATCA submission "Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events -- Considerations for Future Scenarios -- The Opportunity and Risk of Asymmetric Globalisation." Impressive work!
As a quid pro quo, I am presenting the synopsis of our latest report, "Raising Our Game: Can We Sustain Globalization?" The London launch took place at Anglo-American's HQ in London at the end of May and I am just leaving for Sao Paulo, where our next launch takes place. The project was launched early last year, motivated by the fact that SustainAbility was due to celebrate its twentieth anniversary this March.
The object of the exercise was to look back twenty years and then look forward over a similar period. One key conclusion: current patterns of globalization are powerfully in conflict with the principles of sustainable development, despite the fact that it is now also twenty years since the World Commission on Environment and Development ('Brundtland Commission') launched its epochal report, "Our Common Future."
The sponsors of our project -- Ford, Novo Nordisk, Shell, the Skoll Foundation and Vodafone -- know that the processes of globalisation are mutating at warp speed. Businesses that once called for a level playing field are now seeing new players pouring onto the field, new rules being enforced by new types of referee, and early warning signals that the growing influence of China, India and Russia could mean new games entirely. To get a grip on future trends, we came up with four scenarios:
Diamonds
This scenario is bleak - a domino-effect world, in which instead of Adam Smith's invisible hand, our invisible elbows knock over a series of economic, social, and environmental dominoes. Demographic trends and the spread of western lifestyles devastate ecosystems. The challenges come in forms that disable decision-makers and overwhelm society's ability to respond effectively. Over time, as fear closes down thinking and creativity, vicious spirals develop in politics, governance, economics, and technology.
Clubs
A world in which, among other things, the elites learn how to use environmental sustainability as an excuse for denying the poor access to their fair share of natural resources. One outcome is a slowing of the destruction of ecosystems locally, but this future is characterised by protracted periods of social tension -- broken with increasing frequency by insurrections. The waves of change build fitfully, chaotically, with closed societies and communities often operating in denial for extended periods. Over time, this erodes islands of sustainability.
Spades
Democratic societies open out higher living standards to growing proportions of their growing populations. One key consequence is that natural resource prices rise, but another is that ecosystems are progressively undermined, with most governments unwilling to take the political risks of asking voters to make sacrifices in favour of the common good. The challenges are managed to a degree, thanks to more open societies, but not well enough. Deteriorating environmental conditions gnaw at the islands of affluence.
Hearts
This is a world in which demography, politics, economics, and sustainability gel. It is the future that the Brundtland Commission pointed us towards. The early years of this scenario, however, are rough, with a global pandemic shutting down global trade. But in this case the challenges come in forms that drive positive responses, underlining the importance of shared solutions and inclusiveness. Over time, virtuous spirals of improvement set in, in most places. The outcome: a second Renaissance, but across a larger canvas. One key to success: a huge shift in patterns of investment.
We offer seven recommendations to business and the wider sustainability movement:
1. Plan for the unexpected -- in a world that is accelerating and becoming more complex, it will be vital to build in flexibility whether in technology platforms, supply-chains, or human resource policies.
2. Find true South -- the extent to which the interests of the emerging economies will clash with those of the developed North can scarcely be exaggerated. So focus sustainability efforts and investments on regions and cities where the population is booming and development needs are highest.
3. Don't expect nice companies to come first -- even the best corporate citizens can be damaged by scandals, controversies, and economic discontinuities. Over time the capacity to create true blended value will become a defining characteristic of tomorrow's successful global businesses.
4. Co-evolve earth's immune system -- social and ecological shocks are already catalyzing the development of a civil-society-led 'immune system' for the earth. Be part of this to help accelerate its development and serve as a source of market intelligence -- and creation.
5. Think opportunity -- and innovation -- reframe social and environmental issues not just as risks but also as sizeable market opportunities.
6. S-t-r-e-t-c-h -- the scale of the challenges is immense and will require radical approaches to catalyze breakthrough solutions. Take a look at the work of the X Prize Foundation. Business and other leaders will need to reach beyond their comfort zones in finding new models, new technologies, and new partners in sourcing -- and scaling -- solutions.
7. Do the politics -- this agenda is now political. Get involved and take stands, as the US Climate Action partnership is now doing. The time has come for the vision, courage, innovation, and enterprise needed to leapfrog into a different world.
Best wishes
John
[ENDS]
We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.
Best wishes
For and on behalf of DK Matai
Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)
____________________________________________________________________________
ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 100 countries: including several from the House of Lords, House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10's Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial institutions, scientific corporates and voluntary organisations as well as over 750 Professors from academic centres of excellence worldwide.
The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please do not forward or use the material circulated without permission and full attribution.
____________________________________________________________________________
Intelligence Unit | The Philanthropia, ATCA, mi2g.net
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Posted by ATCA at June 16, 2007 12:03 AM
Dear Heath
Your comment is well made and thank you.
If you can amalgamate this comment with the other ones you have presented in the context of Black Swans and send them to intelligence.unit(at)mi2g.com then I am sure that our Head of Research -- Dr Robert Adams -- will be keen to hear from you.
Please attach a copy of your biographical profile as well and where you are based -- city and country.
Thank you
DK
DK Matai
The Philanthropia, ATCA, mi2g.net
Holistic Quantum Relativity Group
Great thought from John Elkington. Hearts or better is a done deal. Provided that the one primary solution is implemented.
The key is life training. Overcoming, bypassing, egoic resistance and accessing extreme intelligence and genius.
This is the art of the present moment not attached to outcome and seeing everything as connected as your own body.
Understanding how to deal with and master the egoic mind (your own and others) with wisdom and the promise of a desired experience.
This combined with engaging the gestalt intelligence and leveraging it. In this area we actually help you to have a direct experience of it, so you have no doubts that it exists.
This is one of the intentions of the Spiritual Retreat in New Mexico, the special training and the direct experience of that all pervading intelligence, however it is that it arises or exists we can produce the phenomena science can try to explain it.
I expect every CEO and head of state to come for training and to meet that mysterious force.
We can promise a reality bending experience.
Perhaps Tammy has some more thoughts.
If you click my name below you can see some of the new sustainable building technology we are going to use. It is also a protoype for Sustainable Infrastructure Communities.
The heart symbol is not recognised worldwide, as it is here in the US and Canada. Many symbols that we use as communication of "mood" or "view" is not the same interpretation globally.
How can we bridge this global-gap with a movement, that is all-encompassing?
with loving kindness,
North
to re-phrase my question:
"How can we bridge this global-gap of symbol-recognition; for a movement, that is all-encompassing?"
Love,
North
When we shift the apex members in all organizations and institutions to higher consciousness it will trickle down.
A "fear free" organization, country, community will leave it's fear impaired competitors and neighbors in the dust, which is good for the bottom line and makes for excellent experience.
When the resistant ones (countries, companies, communities) see the success, they will embrace the "program" Prosperity & Abundance for All.
What was that meme..
All for One and One for all
North, everyone has a heart.
and if they don't know that we can tell them...
even lead them to a direct experience of it with a little silence, not only their own but that of others…
I long to hear her heart beat in synchronicity with mine...
North has a good point. It's something to keep in the collective awareness, that symbols don't necessarily translate across the board.
Is it possible to come up with a perfect plan before it's implemented? Probably not. And I think that fact tends to keep people/organizations from moving forward. Like with healthcare reform in the US (for example), because our leaders can't come up with a perfect solution, nothing ever gets done.
Which leads us right back to the Diamond scenario. "challenges ... disable decision makers and overwhelm society's ability to respond ...fear closes down thinking and creativity." At some point you have to be willing to take steps toward progress knowing that what you have created probably isn't perfect, accept that you'll make mistakes, and try to be aware of them when they're revealed so they can be fixed.
A little secret, everything will unfold perfectly and there is not a damn thing you can do about it. However if you put up resistance, it will not be smooth sailing due to the turbulence in your mind.
Fear free nation states.
When we go into the desert seeking the oasis, we take water, not out of fear for lack, but based on wisdom and probability.
We never act on fear thoughts and in doing so the miracles manifest.
The fearless, full of love are Gods.
and to the fearless, I bring the riches of the Kings and empires
the proagators of fear and lovers of conflict I leave barren
at least that is how it happens in Infinite Play the Movie.. unique though, in that it blends with reality
Dear DK
I will do so. Thank you.
love, Heath
Dear DK and Colleagues
Red Swans and Oil at $20 per barrel
Messrs Elkington, Malleret, Leung and Lehman have some thought provoking contributions on the impact of disruptive events or Black Swans. I presume they are black because they portend doom and gloom.
But what if these aberrations have a highly positive impact and turn out to be Red Swans ? Since everything Chinese is in vogue at the moment, and red is their lucky colour, they will have to red rather than pink. There a four specific discoveries which could take place which could reduce the price of oil to $20 per barrel. They will be quite as cataclysmic as any of the doomsday scenarios we have seen discussed but their disruptive effect will be highly beneficial rather than destructive. Everybody is geared up for the disasters but what about coping with the following blessings ?
Electricity generated by nuclear fusion. It only takes the discovery of an effective method of creating and containing fusion to completely change the whole world energy and economic outlook. There is no doubt it is possible even though it has not been done yet. But it only requires one moment of insight for the walls to come tumbling down.
Hydrogen production from solar cells. The Economist noted a couple of years back that a Geneva based firm had developed solar cells which when of sufficient amplitude to cover the a typical garage generated enough hydrogen to power a car of 10,000 Km per annum. Again only a relatively modest increase in the performance of these cells would make them economically viable and totally disrupt current oil usage.
Hybrid bio-diesel plants. Such a hybrid plant providing substantial yields in oils suitable at diesel fuel will reduce dependence on mineral oils. Again it is envisagable and by that very fact brings it closer to reality.
Solar cells incorporating nanotechnology to produce electricity. The very name says it all. A Credit Suisse research paper says these should come to market by 2010.
But more than the existence of these red swans is the very fact that they carry the imprimatur of being conceivable. Being conceivable makes them realisable and this is the true force behind them. If they could not be conceived then they could never be realised. It is what I call the bone-china syndrome. Back in the 1780’s it was conceived that it should be possible to mix bone with china clay to produce very high quality chinaware. The only problem was that no one could figure out how to do it until Josiah Spode perfected the technique. The mere fact that the idea was out there in the collective consciousness of the industry then lead to its realisation. The same is true of the four concepts mentioned above. They are all doable but their very existence as conceivable realities makes this happen. Oddly enough this collective realisation is a form of prayer. As in the case of bone-china it can be a very effective form of prayer but it is not always those who pray for the answers that get them otherwise I would already be marketing my cheap-as-hell desalination plants.
Bring on the red swans ! Opec beware !
Regards
Anthony
Here is a possible future checkered swan... Scientific American had a small item about making plastics and other hydrocarbons, including oil, from glucose and fructose:
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=3017C38C-E7F2-99DF-38D3D954CA9B3133&chanID=sa003
"June 15, 2007
Turning Plants into Plastic—And Replacing Oil in the Process
A new process may allow plants to become the root of chemicals, plastics and fuels rather than oil
By David Biello
Glucose is the main carbohydrate product of photosynthesis and a primary source of energy in most living things. It is a sugar and the human body's main source of fuel. And, because of its ubiquity, it is a leading candidate to replace oil as an abundant source for fuels, plastics and other petroleum products.
Unfortunately, converting the stuff into useable forms remains a difficult process. For example, using acid catalysts to transform it into a basic building block for plastics also yields a vat of impurities (such as levulinic and formic acids). But now chemists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in Richland, Wash., have come up with a way to efficiently and cleanly turn such naturally occurring sugars into plastics, making Tupperware from trees a real possibility.
Chemist Conrad Zhang and colleagues at PNNL tested a variety of metal catalysts—compounds that speed chemical reactions—in their search for an efficient method of transforming glucose and other natural sugars into hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF), a molecule that can easily be manipulated into a variety of chemicals and plastics.
'Because glucose can be derived directly from cellulose and starch, it is nature's most abundant carbohydrate building block,' Zhang says. 'HMF from renewable carbohydrates, such as fructose and glucose, is a versatile platform chemical from which hundreds of other chemicals can be produced.'
The chemists detail in Science how they used metal chlorides—chromium, copper and other metals paired with two or more chlorine atoms—to transform 70 percent of glucose and nearly 90 percent of fructose into HMF. They report that chromium chloride (CrCl2) worked best, apparently by boosting a sugar molecule's ability to open up and shift atoms in its structure as it changed form, although the exact mechanism remains unknown, Zhang says.
The research could become the basis of a process that turns biomass such as trees, cornstalks and algae into feedstock for chemicals, plastics and fuels at roughly 100 degrees Celsius (212 degrees Fahrenheit), which is a lot cooler than the 600 degrees C (1,112 degrees F) needed for oil refining or the high temperatures (as well as pressure) such oil must undergo when it is formed naturally.
'A number of steps, including process development and optimization, have to take place before full-scale commercialization,' Zhang notes. 'It may take several years to reach that stage.'
Ultimately, the plastic in a fork used at a backyard barbeque may be as directly plant-based as charcoal in the grill and the chef's polyester apron. 'Direct utilization of cellulosic biomass for chemicals and fuel production is a challenging goal,' Zhang adds. 'Our results point to a potential process for the production of HMF from the most abundant renewable sources.'"
The focus of the item is on plastics, but the third from last paragraph's casual mention of fuel is a stunner. One reason industry is beginning to see the value of going green is the diminishing supply of underground hydrocarbons. If that reason is removed... yet if oil and plastics could be made from a renewal source, at lower temperatures, with less dangerous catalysts, there would be benefits short-term, especially if the bio source for the process encouraged financially-sustainable replanting of deforested areas of the earth, etc.
love, Heath
Dear DK
Despite my #15 reply to your #2 request, I haven't yet sent that email, and I've decided not to do so. My decision is due to a need for privacy. You're welcome to use whatever words I've written.
(I'll be participating less on IB, for the same reason. I'll continue to read every day, and I'll comment once in a while.)
All my best wishes to you.
love, Heath
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(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)Dear DK
Despite my #15 reply to your #2
Here is a possible future checkered swan... Sci
Dear DK and Colleagues
Red Swans and Oi
Dear DK
I will do so. Thank you.
at least that is how it happens in Infinite Pla
Dear DK, ATCA, John
As in any opening hand of cards, all four types of scenario are active now, and will remain so for some time. It will take a strong effort of educating people, at every level, worldwide, that their interests belong to the suite of hearts, in order to reduce the impact of those who prefer to deal in diamonds, spades, and clubs. I pray the effort to win in hearts succeeds.
May I suggest: since so many in the world know the four suites of cards, and the metaphor in this post is so easy to understand, that the message in this post be simplified and used the theme of a worldwide marketing campaign, to focus the people of the world on the hearts option? Such a campaign would raise awareness of the issues worldwide, and widen the pool of people who can contribute to the hearts scenario.
love, Heath