intentBlog intent is the emerging asian consciousness giving birth to a global mind shift

*Low Probability High Impact & Black Swan Events*

DK Matai - June 12, 2007

Dear Friends, the final version of this ATCA think-piece based on major research, put together by myself and the mi2g Intelligence Unit, has now been released. Reviewers of the article include:

Aileen Armour-Biggs, Douglas Byblow, Prof Nigel Cameron, Hervé de Carmoy, Fred Cohen, Napier Collyns, Jean-Yves Gresser, Hamid Hakimzadeh, Gerald Harris, Willy Hersberger, Rear Admiral John Hilton, Chris Histed, Alexander Hoare, Prof Sai-Felicia Krishna-Hensel, Richard Lee, Prof Jean-Pierre Lehmann, Andrew Leung, George Littlejohn, Thierry Malleret, Dr Harald Malmgren, Nicholas Mellor, Miguel Mendonca, Prof Jim Norton, John Petersen, John Pickering, Richard Thomas Gerber, Commodore Patrick Tyrrell, Michael Wade, Sir Harold Walker, Ian Walker & Martin Wolf.

Considerations for Future Scenarios

Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events

The Opportunity and Risk of Asymmetric Globalisation

We are all being hurled closer to each other as the world integrates faster than ever before. The propensity for fast global integration creates both huge opportunities and its inevitable flip-side, huge risks. In the future, we should be concerned about Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan events which can change the present trajectory of nation states and large economic entities, many with turnovers in excess of the GDP of most nations. Welcome to Asymmetric Globalisation in which friends and adversaries are no longer similar looking as they react to on- and off-the-radar forces giving rise to Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events. This also means that more risk is increasingly transferred into the markets away from Sovereign states, increasing their volatility.

[Continues]

As a special consideration, please note that some Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan events may actually become High Probability High Impact Events as time goes by owing to the five drivers converging and colliding.

[ENDS]

With love and warm wishes to you and family


DK with family

DK Matai
The Philanthropia, ATCA, mi2g.net

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Posted by DK Matai at June 12, 2007 06:17 AM

Comments

Dear DK,

Thank you, it is evolving into a most excellent think piece. Collaboration always results in something much greater than any of the individual parts can produce. I think it demonstrates that through global collaboration the world can yield an excellent experience for everyone.

I think it helps for business to focus not on how quickly it can acquire in the short term monetary units, but rather to look at things as an energy exchange and profit being a measure of the amount and quality of benefit provided.

Increasing market share is really all about expanding the number of energy exchange relationships one has with customers and clients in the world.

One important thing to note is that the larger the customer base is, the greater the benefit to each individual customer because of economies of scale.

Every business benefits from every individual having a way, or channel, to participate in the economic system providing their energy and creativity. When everyone is happy the energy put into the system multiplies and expands generating a return greater than the energy put into the system.

Eliminating poverty and expanding the size of the potential customer base is a sure way to increased profitability. Some people work too much, and are under stress, and as a result others don’t have enough work, or a means to contribute and participate.

I think we should be spending a lot more time traveling and meeting everyone else on the planet and simply enjoying our cross cultural relationships with them. The whole idea of technology was increased leisure time, play and adventure. I would hope that the travel, hospitality, entertainment and transportation industries and those that support them would become the biggest industries in the world.

For all the money (energy) we spend on fear and conflict we could pay for virtually unlimited travel for everyone, well almost, 6 billion is a lot…. first we need to feed and shelter everyone.


Thanks for sharing the pre-final write-up DK, which is much better than the first one or maybe that due to the fact that I read it twice? But I don't think so. However, I continue to lose interest in the middle section of this piece and that could just be due to my lack of desire to deal with the historical parts, as I enjoy the projections much better. You guys have something very good here and I guess I should have assumed that some one or some organization would be taking on this challenge, as I believe all this is meant to be and has been talked about in the Bible. Plus, one just feels it and knows it. I guess the timing is the only real unknown and maybe that's becoming more of a known.

Again, very good paper!

Love, Char

Yeah! I liked that Richard....the part about reducing one's workload and having more leisure time, since I do not have that benefit! No matter what I have tried, I cannot seem to reduce my time working. And when I do, I still have to sit at a desk 8 hours a day, i.e., the protocol for my job! Then I have all this time to read this stuff on the internet. And if there is nothing exciting going on, I become bored, which is about the time my day seems to last forever, then I'm ready to quit. I know that I have to figure it out ... work smarter, so I can enjoy life. I believe that life was meant to be enjoyed by all, as well as all being happy. I think the key word is ALL and once the all has this, then we can all enjoy being happy. One person or one nation/country cannot have the advantage above another, as we must be equal in all things ... because we are the ONE. What else is there, but this? It would be like fighting evolution. Can you imagine what it would take for the rich to share equally? I cannot, but I am sure we will find out and most likely in our life time. Just some of my random thoughts ....

Love, Char

Love, Char

PS: And what would it take for the powerful to share power?

Love, Char

Dear Richard, dear Char

Thank you for your feedback and input.

With love


DK

DK Matai

The Philanthropia, ATCA, mi2g.net
Holistic Quantum Relativity Group

Dear Richard and DK

Nice article.

Scenario 4 is brilliantly observed and written up, as are the explorations of the risks of globalisation.

About scenario 3, I'm a little surprised that there's a tinge of surprise at reduced courage, less flexibility and adaptation to change, etc. In times of little stress, or times of crisis, people are often at their best. But in times of constant pressure, with erosion of life as it was, people are often not at their best.

In the section on the web, you have this sentence: "In a sense each node connected to all other nodes via multiple paths a form of holistic communication." The sentence is unclear... is it missing a word or some punctuation?

Two more features of the web that allowed it to grow and persist are flexible scalability and low cost of implementation and maintenance. Striving for these features in new worldwide efforts would support their growth and persistence, too.

love, Heath

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