Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. The Lord Howell of Guildford, based at The Palace of Westminster, London, for "Out of the Energy Labyrinth;"
. John Elkington based in London, UK, and presently visiting Sao Paulo, Brazil, for "Diamonds, Clubs, Spades and Hearts";
. Dr Thierry Malleret based in Geneva, Switzerland, for "The Lesson of Humility in dealing with Black Swans;"
. Andrew Leung based in London, UK, and frequent visitor to China, for "The China Black Swans"; and
. Prof Jean-Pierre Lehmann based in Ouchy and IMD Lausanne, Switzerland, for "Integrating The Black Swan in Corporate Global Trends Analysis";

in response to the ATCA presentation, "Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events -- Considerations for Future Scenarios -- The Opportunity and Risk of Asymmetric Globalisation."

The Right Honourable Lord (David) Howell of Guildford, President of the British Institute of Energy Economics, is a former Secretary of State for Energy and for Transport in the UK Government and an economist and journalist. Lord Howell is Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the House of Lords and Conservative Spokesman on Foreign Affairs. He also Chairs the Windsor Energy Group. Until 2002 he was Chairman of the UK-Japan 21st Century Group, (the high level bilateral forum between leading UK and Japanese politicians, industrialists and academics), which was first set up by Margaret Thatcher and Yasuhiro Nakasone in 1984. In addition he writes a fortnightly column for The JAPAN TIMES in Tokyo, and has done so since 1985. He also writes regularly for the International Herald Tribune. David Howell was the Chairman of the House of Commons Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, 1987-97. He was Chairman of the House of Lords European Sub-Committee on Common Foreign and Security Policy from 1999-2000. In 2001 he was awarded the Grand Cordon of the Order of the Sacred Treasure (Japan). His latest book, 'Out of the Energy Labyrinth' has been described as 'a serious and thoughtful attempt to grapple with the complexities of the energy challenge and foreign policy', by James R Schlesinger, and as 'a terrific book, not least because of its topicality' by Sir Simon Jenkins. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Out of the Energy Labyrinth

I read your "Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan events" paper delivered as a keynote in Geneva with the greatest possible interest. It is full of insights. Now, inspired by that, please accept the following comments in regard to "Out of the Energy Labyrinth," which as a multi-dimensional matrix of non-linear dynamics may precipitate the arrival of several low probability high impact and black swan events, in the coming few decades.

The underlying theme is as follows, that the enemy is the model and the friend is the process. As the world integrates faster than ever and random events and developments come hurtling out of nowhere (your concept) it has become never more important to alter the mindset of the 20th century, which searched for systems and solutions in everything, and to replace it with the mindset of the future in which everything is a process.

The insight of my late and brilliant tutor Nicholas Kaldor [1908-1986, foremost economist at Cambridge University] -- hopeless egalitarian but wonderfully heretical about classical economic thinking -- was just that! -- that the economy was not a thing, an entity, a machine, but a self-propelled chain of causes and effects, driven this way and that by outside forces, most of them unforeseen and unpredicted. He would not have welcomed the comment that power has seeped away from rulers to the almighty and unpredictable markets -- although that is indeed just what is happening -- but he would certainly have enjoyed the dismay of theorists who demand more and more 'competition' and end up with monopoly (nowadays politely called 'consolidation') -- although that is exactly what Adam Smith forecast!

So far as government and social organisation are concerned, practical, step-by-step moves -- informed by constant alertness and understanding of what is actually happening, what is in reach, and what are the possible unintended and unforeseen consequences -- are the only workable and realistic approach to making sense of, or succeeding in, these conditions. That is the message of our energy and climate book "Out of the Energy Labyrinth" and it is the message which ought to guide all policy-making in today's world.

The fundamental thesis is that there is a greener, cleaner and safer energy future ahead but we are not on the right path towards it, for the following reasons:

1. There are major threats to world energy supplies and needs immediately before us which could trip up and undermine all long term plans to counter climate chaos and halt global warming, unless they are understood, faced openly and handled far more vigorously than at present.

2. The policies being pushed to cut carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases are in many case the wrong ones. The effective way to curb greenhouse gases is through maximum incentives to new fuel technologies and energy-efficient innovations, in a context of rising energy prices, rather than through unattainable global schemes for carbon rationing or pricing. We need practical, step-by-step measures by Governments, institutions and individuals, not pie in-the-sky visions and lofty targets which will certainly be missed.

3. The poorer half of the world wants, and must have, cheap and plentiful energy availability to develop. This could be in direct conflict with carbon reduction unless the whole approach is altered. The new reckoning demands a much more compelling message, allying energy security with longer term climate goals, instead of setting them against each other.

'Out of the Energy Labyrinth' offers both a more hopeful and realistic approach and a down-to-earth way forward out of this hazardous and confusing scene, in which energy issues have become inextricably interwoven not only with environmental concerns but with international tensions and persisting political instability in all the major energy-supplying regions of the world . It is based on first hand experience of past energy crises, oil shocks and policy blunders at the heart of government and on world-wide investigation and up-to-the-minute research.

The approach outlined is one of the first to bring together the currently deteriorating international outlook, the energy scene and the environmental challenges. Anyone who is looking for a practical route through today's bewildering energy security and climate security debates, and on towards a safer and more secure energy pattern in a less dangerous and better conserved planet, needs to think in terms of getting "Out of the Energy Labyrinth."

Kindest regards

David Howell

[ENDS]

We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes


For and on behalf of DK Matai
Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)
____________________________________________________________________________

ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 100 countries: including several from the House of Lords, House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10's Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial institutions, scientific corporates and voluntary organisations as well as over 750 Professors from academic centres of excellence worldwide.

The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please do not forward or use the material circulated without permission and full attribution.
____________________________________________________________________________
Intelligence Unit | The Philanthropia, ATCA, mi2g.net

Add to Technorati Favorites

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)