It is even more sad when we remember how enormous the potential of the Haitian people is. There is enormous potential in everyone, but a history of being descendants of slaves cannot make it easier to realize that power. Victimization is a powerful conditioning.

Help from the rich world is absolutely needed to begin with. This seems to be the process necessary right now, starving nations are graciously helping rich nations to grow in compassion. But the real solution would be to help the inhabitants, probably women first, to find their value and strength, their creativity. Mud cakes is, to me, a fantastic first expression of creativity, but much more is possible and needed. Think of micro loans, think of trees planted in Africa, think of women in the whole world feeding their children, miraculously... year after year. If women could only understand and consciously use the power of life itself, the power inherent in themselves, it would transform the whole world.
There must be a way to help them find their power.

You just did, Aurora. Best bet is to clone you methinks from what I note other's believe! You are so right...help is waiting in the Wings, my Angel.

Though a fertile country, Haiti has to import most of its staple foods. The political turmoil of decades has made stable agriculture, markets and distribution an impossibility.

Haiti is not the only country suffering like this.

Lack of peace consumes human resources in every way, making life much more difficult for those who survive.

At this moment, around the world, there are factors like high transportation costs, changes in exchange rates that are disadvantageous to poorer countries, and the drought in Australia, that are contributing to the spike in the cost of staple foodstuffs for countries that cannot supply their own.

There are other, more local factors that contribute, too, like the use of US corn to produce ethanol instead of feed, increasing food consumption in nations with high economic growth rates, and high-yield rice strains now producing less grain because of climate change.

All these factors are impinging on the world's ability to distribute what it grows equitably. The nations with the most strained resources are not able to compete successfully to procure enough food, or to support self-reliance.

The question is, what can we do now?

Aurora's comments provide good answers.

Ed, I spend a lot of time trying to find solutions to these issues. In a way, you're right when you say "clone me", because I have been "powerless" just like these people. And I have found the way out. My question is now- how do I help others find it?

Heath, problems are interrelated, as you write. Solutions too. We do know it's about raising the general level of consciousness. What is the best way, where do we start, how do we go about it? I wonder what you think. For me, right now it is a matter of asking these questions (having the intention) and keeping my eyes and ears open for clues from life itself.

The mud cakes turn my stomach. It's sad when people have to resort to this. Why isn't someone in the UN assisting to bring food in, to at least to temporarily resolve this issue? - or maybe they are working on it, as I don't follow the news? Maybe I should get my TV & cable up and running at home. BTW: Aurora's ideal of helping is a good one and I believe it has been tried and tested to work.

Love, Char

My worry, Aurora, is the suffering taking place as we ask the questions.

The same frailty that afflicts the world's ability to get resources to the right places at the right time in non-crisis situations is still in place, and sometimes even magnified, when there's a crisis. There is a multi-point crisis now, which means even more places are competing for the same resources, and resources are dwindling on a per-capita basis worldwide..

In this crisis, it seems to me that the only solution is volunteer sharing at the national level -- a national response to other countries' plights -- marketed in such a way that it becomes "the thing to do" to eat less, so more food is available for other countries, and instead of buying that beach house or third car, put money into bonds or other instruments that are then used to send capital abroad to invest in distribution and agriculture infrastructure and supplies.

Our neighbors' houses are burning. Not only is it inhumane not to get relief to them, it's also a danger to our own houses.

It's supremely important to get people as self-sufficient as possible. That limits the spread of crises by making the localities more resilient and resourceful.

But when country A is glomming up all the rice to eat, and country B has a shortfall in seed rice and climate change causing drought, even the best-intentioned populace with the best education cannot be self-sufficient at such times.

A marketing effort needs to be made to condemn short-sightedness and greed, and encourage altruism, even if only for selfish reasons. This has been done effectively in the past. A sea change is needed, for all the people in the world, to view others as their brothers and sisters, to see them as real neighbors, and to understand their cultures and needs, and act when trouble is on the way, before it hits hard. The world needs to become a good neighborhood.

Right now, there needs to be a way to channel food and other resources to the people who need it. So what is that way?

I expect there's something already in place, but the magnitude of this situation may be similar to that of the tsunami, in the aftermath of which, resources were collected and shipped to distribution points in affected areas -- and there the resources sat, and sometimes rotted, because there was no way to get them out to the individuals who needed them.

But in any case, what is the way? Because even if not all that's sent is delivered, if some rots, and some is stolen, at least some will get to people who might otherwise die.

Immediately, we must give as much as we possibly can. In the longer term, the solution will come from our grasping our profound connection with Gaia and Life itself.

b

You know, it's a tribute to the women of Haiti that they are combining the dirt of their land with some nutritious foods, to at least stave off starvation. This is self-reliance already in place.

Now where is their seed? Where is their land? Where is their water? Where are the people who'll teach them to grow their own food and other resources?

I understand, Heath, I know the time for questioning can be painfully long but it's still very necessary. Because it is only in questioning our beliefs that we can find a higher truth of wholeness already existing, instead of running around and trying to patch the many holes of the broken vessel.

To me, it is clear that acting is important, but acting not out of desperation and a sense of guilt or from the role of "rescuer", but because we listen inside and hear that whisper telling us exactly what each of us has to do for the whole to return to health.

Eating less so others have more is a mental construct, not a truth whispered from the inner intelligence. Eating just enough is the voice of intelligence. The problem is not shortage of food, but greed, which is nothing but disguised fear of shortage. Our fear of hunger has lead to hunger... we can't solve this by eating less. We can solve it by realizing how we're creating the hunger in our world.

Charity is the first action possible, but it is a surface action. Why charity work hasn't solved the world's problems by now is because it only reinforces the victim-rescuer story, the illusion that some of us have the power and others don't. So besides sending food, we need to look at the underlying patterns that keep the rich world and the poor world locked in this dance. Guilt respectively anger are not the solution. Responsibility and awareness on how we create together are what it takes.

Aurora, who is bearing the pain as we take the time to question? It's not us, very much. I think we can act now, and question at the same time. Relief is needed now, rescue is needed now.

I think Bonnie is right when she writes,

"Immediately, we must give as much as we possibly can. In the longer term, the solution will come from our grasping our profound connection with Gaia and Life itself."

We do need to eat less or eat just enough. If we are eating too much, and we eat less, we approach eating just enough. Word choices are not important as long as less in consumed by nations with more than enough. Less consumption means lower prices, and growers and wholesalers looking for external markets.

You wrote: "Responsibility and awareness on how we create together are what it takes."

I wrote: "A marketing effort needs to be made to condemn short-sightedness and greed, and encourage altruism, even if only for selfish reasons. This has been done effectively in the past. A sea change is needed, for all the people in the world, to view others as their brothers and sisters, to see them as real neighbors, and to understand their cultures and needs, and act when trouble is on the way, before it hits hard. The world needs to become a good neighborhood."

Despite the different expressions, I think we are on the same page in that respect, and with respect to needing to act now in response to crisis, as well.

One way to donate directly:

http://www.wfp.org/english/

This is the U.N. World Food Programme.

The Associated Press reported yesterday:

"United Nations programs will distribute 8,000 tons of food and other help for Haitians in coming days as part of efforts to confront unrest over rising prices that set off recent rioting, officials said Thursday.

"U.N. spokeswoman Michele Montas said food provided by the World Food Program will focus on children, pregnant women and nursing mothers in the north, west and central regions of Haiti, the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere.

"Anger over surging food prices has threatened stability in the Caribbean nation, which has long been haunted by chronic hunger. Haitian lawmakers fired Prime Minister Jacques Edouard Alexis over the rioting.

"Mamadou Bah, spokesman for the U.N. country team in Haiti, said the 8,000 tons are available stock and will be distributed over the next two months starting Thursday.

"The U.N. Children's Fund will double its child feeding program to combat malnutrition and spend some $1.6 million on water and sanitation projects in the northwest and Artibonite regions, Montas said.

"Globally, food prices have risen 40 percent since mid-2007.

"Haiti is particularly affected because it imports nearly all of its food, including more than 80 percent of its rice. Once productive farmland has been abandoned as farmers struggle to grow crops in soil devastated by erosion, deforestation, flooding and tropical storms.

Pr"otests and looting in Port-au-Prince left at least seven dead last week, including a Nigerian officer in the 9,000-member U.N. peacekeeping force who was pulled from a car and killed Saturday. Three Sri Lankan peacekeepers were injured by gunfire early last week.

"Brazilian members of the U.N. peacekeeping force distributed 14 tons of rice, beans, sugar and cooking oil to 1,500 families in the capital's sprawling Cite Soleil slum Tuesday.

"The World Food Program and the U.N. mission in Haiti continue to support various projects aimed at creating jobs, Montas said. Some 2,500 Haitians are already employed by these projects which have a combined budget of $2.3 million, she said."

The heart trembles while the soul weathers the storms of every kind of crisis found in places - like Haiti.

I have faith to believe human minds will solve these important issues, and heart - to put aside greed and implement effective politics and grassroots actions.

When will we have a world in which every child born has basic rights to food and shelter.

Recently I read that the top 20% of the world population consume 86% of the world resources. Globalization is the way to make this possible by rapid movement of good,food and services where they are available cheap to sell in places where maximum price can be fetched.

I'm going to set aside my opinions on this one (I'm soooo very bored with them anyway).

So in the spirit of Aurora's inquiry, I'll humbly ask the universe two questions:

1. What would it be like to affect real exchange of energy with those most in need?

2. What radical help would the universe supply me in the doing of this?

A view inside another

My head popping-up logical-ideas
Structures for computers good behaviors
At the same time I was too
Inside mass-ego inferno

Myself included as well as what seems
The entire America
Was discovered again
By a subtile-eye

I was in this view
Everything was available
Nothing to do with words like
Spying or getting

Simply the opacity-illusion
Of what real-nights had never been
And I see peoples so much peoples
Pretending that everything is so simple-fine

There was a deep complex-night
Opacity so strong
That I got a thirst, my first doubt
About this fluffy-fight for peace

Really, how can we get out of that?
At least I understood something
A little meditation day by day is a funny tool for kids
We are talking big and strong here

Something is about a White-Tibet
Something is about a Dark-Africa

A large-knowledge that I cannot even see clearly
For sure, out of any words-straight

Tonight by writing this note to you
Olaudah Equiano was meeting me for the first time...

P.S.: I am cold-flaming Rachel and Ed. and Diablo too

"At present, this is the food being eaten by the poorest people in the hemisphere."

How many people are eating it? And is it the only thing they are eating? Any numbers?

Are there poorer people than the Haitians in the southern hemisphere? That's news to me.

It’s news to me too. Hopefully this will help down the road.

House Passes Haiti Amendment and Jubilee Act

Submitted by tomr on Thu, 2008-04-17 10:54.

Yesterday the House of Representatives passed the Jubilee Act. The amendment on Haiti debt cancellation also passed - by unanimous consent. Below we have press releases from Jubilee USA about the Jubilee Act, and from Alcee Hastings (D-FL) office, the sponsor of the Haiti amendment.

While the amendment is not precisely the same as the resolution you have all been working on, it is very close. This means that yesterday the U.S. House of Representative unanimously supported the idea that Haiti should not pay any more on its debt to international financial institutions!

The Jubilee Act will now go to the Senate. Stay tuned for more updates. Thank you to everyone who helped with effort and a special thanks to the Jubilee USA staff who have done amazing work on the Jubilee Act and the Haiti debt resolution.

http://haiti.quixote.org/node/289

If you think about the magnitude of economic disparity between any two neighboring countries, you may believe it's huge between Mexico and America. Well, think again. Dominican Republic is a green and prosperous nation which shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti which has become an environmental disaster and a political & economical nightmare.

Having spent a summer homeless as a small child; I remember eating roots, drinking stream-water, wild vegetables like carrots, turnips, potatoes and onions, and abundant wild berries. I remember being so hungry once, I started to eat leaves. My eldest brother told me to be careful, as not everything is safe to eat, and some things have small hidden bugs(germs/bacteria.) We bathed in public pools--that's where we slept at night; hiding in the forest during the daytime. That happened in the early 1960's before social programming were committed.

I can well imagine their pain.. the pangs of hunger are like shards of steel in the pits of the digestive system. Hard to sleep when hungry and thirsty--itchy from being dirty and bitten relentlessly by insects! I remember most though; the pain in my Mom's eyes..

May the universe conspire to send aid to Haiti; and calm to the turmoil; and may all world leaders learn to "do the right thing" and allow peace and abundance to flourish on earth! It is our destiny..not our fate.

Love,
North

Profoundly, most impoverished, oppressed countries in turmoil; have been or are; being ruled by outsiders:

Examples:

Iraq - invaded by USA
Vietnam - invaded by USA
Africa - England
Ireland - England
Scotland - England
India - England
Pakistan - USA
Aphganistan - Canada

When the western part of the world; realizes, it does not have the right or liberty to own other parts of the world;

perhpas we can begin to administer social-global order and a fair re-distribution of worldly wealth abundance of opportunity, food, water, work, minerals and resources which belong to us ALL anyway!!

Good morning Heather,

Interesting discussion, thank you. Let's continue and see where it takes us.

Of course relief is needed now... of course love flows through all of us and wants to alleviate pain immediately. That’s the nature of love. But the thing is that love flows through the different filters we have which colour our perception and create our world.

Let me try to put it like this...

Loving action in the world of form is very important. But any action in the world of form- like sending food, giving money, creating marketing campaigns, etc- is difficult, is going to meet a lot of resistance and is going to take lots of effort and time. Besides... reality won’t change that much, as it is recreated through the same process.

Loving action in the world of thought and belief systems is also very important. Such action, like teaching people to grow their food, to read and write, to understand the principles of economy, to believe in themselves and find their personal/national power - will give much faster results, as it is thought that creates form. You change the belief, that changes the thoughts and the results.

Loving action from the realm of being (unfiltered love) is where the real change happens. Simply finding, noticing this dimension of oneself, the source of endless spiritual power and creativity, the place where we are all equal and equally create the life we experience together... it changes everything. From here it is clear that this one intelligence with so many faces is ALREADY creating the entire world of form. From here it becomes obvious how we put on the masks of rich man poor man, what mechanisms are at work and what function they have in the world of separation. From here, we can let go of all the masks and see each other as equally spirit, thus no need for persuasion, manipulation of the masses, guilt, blame and all the rest. All our ego-tactics fall off leaving us free to love and live for real.

What I’m trying to say is that sure, we need to act immediately. But not on the expense of taking time for reflection, because in the stillness we have a chance to observe who we really are, what is really happening, and so to make a real change instead of endlessly rolling with the stormy waves on the surface, repeating our patterns. In the depth of each of us, the truth about our essence is obvious, and accessing this truth is the real cure.

My question to life, to myself, is - how can I be instrumental in this process of awakening?

'Very poignant',Aurora.

“My question to life, to myself, is - how can I be instrumental in this process of awakening?”

Why not teach the world to change reality?

For men only!

The field of Krishna

A boost for virility out of over-sentimentality
A raw-energy, logical and clear
Let's recreate thunderstorm of male word-secretion

Let's them go, interminable sensitivity-incomprehensibility
There is a camp for man-rehability
A place to sit, out of controlled-armies
A place where black-powder is cooked with intensity

Don't you think it is time, you should get out
Soldier, get on the lines of mass-insecurity
For a moment, out of these over-feminity commandments
Rules where men can get lost for eternity in absurdity

Inside this force-masculinity
Don't worry too much about her easy-attacks
Give her a lovely-kiss, get out
Let's meet, cause man, I need to kick your ass
I need to see my friend back

We miss your energy, your authenticity
What about the laughters and stupidities
Ok, we needed to fix our fathers inflexibility
Now, let's continue our maturity
Around a gun and a whisky
Let's make the point on power lost in obscurity

We need you
As simple as you are
With madness and frustrations
I need to see you back on the front line...

#22 Unless a corn of wheat go into the dark earth and shrivel it cannot feed the multitude.

Re#23

Until then, we are left to play out the game day by day. That being the case, we should elect to play it out with the best among us, the one's on humanity's side, that hidden and unheralded aristocracy, those quiet lamp lighters, making their way through the deepening dusk.

Have tried my best going through the archives to give due credit to a wise being, who about two years ago made here what must be amongst the best comment on life and humanity I have ever heard. Unfortunately have failed to find it and apologise to the author. But that statement came to mind immediately on reading this post. To paraphrase it to the best of my memory:

All other creatures live off what nature provides and share what is available off the earth and plants in plenty. Human beings are the only species that have to pay for their food.

I have often been in awe of the wisdom in those words and always marvelled at our greedy and petty mindedness. We have over centuries ravaged mother earth of its bounty and in our greed for pelf and power, ridden roughshod over anyone weaker than ourselves.

We are so 'advanced' that we can fly to the moon, communicate in real time across the world, or destroy this planet within a few hours, but we will not treat all humans as equals and share. We talk of religion, equality in the eyes of God, etc etc. without seeing that equality through our own eyes.

Dara

I have a quick question for DK Matai:

In the following article, I read, "Futures, for example, are less reliable. They work as a hedge only if they fall due at a price that roughly matches prices in the cash market, where the grain is actually sold. Increasingly — for disputed reasons — grain futures are expiring at prices well above the cash-market price."

What does this mean? Whom do you think is at fault? Do you think someone is profiting from it?

Here's the article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/business/21cnd-commodity.html?_r=1&ex=1366516800&en=66076a4374859f1d&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin

Here's another reference to this phenomenon:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/28/business/28commodities.html

It's REALLY odd if you consider it carefully.

Readers of this thread might be interested in this:

Food Rationing Confronts Breadbasket of the World

http://www2.nysun.com/article/74994

Spengler at Asia Times Online writes:

Rice, death and the dollar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD22Dj01.html

"The global food crisis is a monetary phenomenon, an unintended consequence of America's attempt to inflate its way out of a market failure. There are long-term reasons for food prices to rise, but the unprecedented spike in grain prices during the past year stems from the weakness of the American dollar. Washington's economic misery now threatens to become a geopolitical catastrophe.

Months ago, I offered that China, Russia and other cash-rich nations held the antidote to the incipient credit crisis: "If the US wants to remain the magnet for world capital flows it became during the 1990s, it will have to allow the savers of the world to become partners in the US economy, that is, to buy into its first-rank companies."(Western grasshoppers and Chinese ants)* ...

China is exchanging its depreciating reserves of US dollars for things of value, notably rice, with frightening consequences for dependent countries, and deadly consequences for American foreign policy."

*Western grasshoppers and Chinese ants
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/II05Dj01.html

This morning I was shocked to read "Rice, death and the dollar"(#31) posted by Vanessa, who generally shows good acumen in picking excellent articles to educate the ignorants at IB. The article starts off:

"The global food crisis is a monetary phenomenon, an unintended consequence of America's attempt to inflate its way out of a market failure. There are long-term reasons for food prices to rise, but the unprecedented spike in grain prices during the past year stems from the weakness of the American dollar. Washington's economic misery now threatens to become a geopolitical catastrophe."

The author - a certain "Spengler" - admits there are "long-term reasons" for rising food prices. Now that's an interesting remark. Unfortunately he doesn't identify what he believes those reasons are. But then he continues by stating that "the unprecedented spike in grain prices during the past year stems from the weakness of the American dollar". Now that's very interesting because it's almost certainly not true.

According to Google the EURUSD rate on 4/13/2007 was 1.35 (0.739 in USDEUR) and on 4/15/2008 was 1.57 (0.633 in USDEUR). That's an increase of 16%. The price of rice in USD indeed increased from approx. 10 USD in April 2007 to approx. 24 USD in april 2008. Let's see what those prices are in EURO.

On 4/13/2007 rice costs approx. 7.39 EURO (10 USD times 0.739). On 4/15/2008 rice costs approx. 15.19 EURO (24 USD times 0.633). Compared to an increase of 140% in USD the price of rise rose by approx. 104% in EURO. That's still an important increase.

Despite "Spengler's" claim to the contrary only approx. 26% of the price increase of rise can be attributed to USD devaluation. In other words, the price of rise rose with approx. 3.64 USD due to USD devaluation and with approx. 10.36 USD due to "long-term reasons".

Does this mean America is attempting "to inflate its way out of a market failure"? I don't know how that would work. It sounds as utter nonsense.

Yeah, indeed IW... this doesn't make any sense

If food had only gotten more expensive in the U.S. this might have some substance to it, but in fact the worst food-price problems are in other (especially poor) countries which are actually helped by the USD devaluation, since it makes their imports of food from the US (which is a net exporter) cheaper.

Too complicated for me.

Because a lot of countries export goods and even food to the US(higher priced commodities like coffee), there is the potential for a weaker dollar to mean that their compensation for exports has changed as the dollar declines.

Confusing to say the least....

It's easy to see the changes in currency valuation in regards to things like tourism, but international trade & currency changes seems more complicated to me.

Irvine #32, living in a euro zone and paid in USD you don't have to tell me about food prices. Everything is going up here too, as you rightly point out.

Rice has risen in price due to a combination of weather factors, and the shifting changes in world food usage.

An insane 98% reduction in Australian rice production (you are reading that right) due to a horrific 6-year drought, combined with shifts away from rice production in other regions to grains intended for meat production are the real keys.

32 is praising himself again when he refers to the man immediately above and below him...eek!

Hey Freyja, but the Asia Times article still has a point...

Let's shift away from rice and talk about wheat. Wheat has also increased dramatically in price in the last year or so, to at or near all time highs.

In fact, whether it is foodstuffs, or industrial metals, or gold, or oil, all commodities have increased in price from 30% to 60% -- in dollar terms, but not in euro terms -- since last August.

What happened last August, you say? That is when the Fed panicked and started lowering US interest rates (causing the dollar nearly to collapse) in order to bail out investment banks, hedge funds, and other financial players.

It is not too much of an exaggeration to say that, as a result, every time you pull up to the gas pump, you are paying $1 a gallon to bail out Wall Street.

Cheers.

Bajaj:

You didn't draw a connection

How does a lower dollar raise commodity prices overseas? Plus, the dollar's been on the decline for years, this is not something that started in August.

Connection below...

Go over to bloomberg.com and check their commodities page. You can see that every single commodity index is up 30%-60% since last August.

Go over to

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/04/why_new_oil_pri.html

and compare the increase in costs of commodities in euros vs. the dollar. Over half of the increase since last year can be attributed to dollar weakness vs. the euro.

Go check out a chart of the trade weighted dollar. The dollar's decline accelerated in August as the Fed started cutting rates.

Go find charts of the real (inflation adjusted) prices of wheat and copper. The real acceleration in price started in 2007.

Cheers.

Wheat is the same story as rice

The 'price of wheat'* rose from 400 something USD in april 2007 to 875 USD in april 2008. That's an increase of about 100%. The 16% devaluation of the USD against the EURO in that same time period cannot explain this raise.

Wheat price
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CW/W

I agree with Irvine Welsh--the global food crisis can't be simply "a monetary problem"--there are many variables at work here.

The growing of monoculture crops such as corn has increased (decreasing biodiversity which is always BAD). However, more and more crops formerly grown for food has been diverted for use as fuel which is a hoax perpetrated on consumers to make them think they are "going green" when in reality they are contributing to increased greenhouse emissions and unwittingly participating in a form of eugenics (population kill or die-off).

Exponential population growth has passed a tipping point and entire ecosystems are failing.

Insects can't find their way to pollinate flowers because their chemical scents interact with the pollution humans produce.

Insects which pollinate flowers are having population die-offs because human pollution interferes with the pheromones they produce that enable them to attract mates and reproduce.

Colony collapse disorder has decimated honeybee populations which is resulting in fewer bee-pollinated crops, ie almonds among many others. There is much that points at GM foods being the culprit, but of course the MSM doesn't discuss this.

Whatever the reasons, the Earth simply cannot sustain a population of 6.6 billion with almost 50 species a day disappearing forever for the past several decades.

This is why I stopped reading Asia Times Online. Every once in a while they get some great long article, but most of the rest of the writers are hacks. I found too many inaccuracies in that article to even start responding.

Spengler is also the one who printed the article that Obama is basically pussy whipped.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JB26Aa01.html

Its not much more subtle than that.

Bajaj, interesting comment...

Also ...

there's getting to be some talk in the financial sections about a commodity Bubble. In other words, you start with devaluation of the dollar driving commodity prices up in dollar terms. But then you pile on all the speculators who have shifted their money with each successive bubble, out of tech to real estate, and now out of real estate to commodities, running up prices well out of the range of rational value as they pursue quick inflation above and beyond the decline of the dollar. THAT means that the crash of the dollar essentially leverages more drastic changes in the commodities markets ... that aren't being counteracted in any way, by the diversion of corn to biofuel or the loss of crops due to global warming and other environmental degradation.

Irvine Welsh wrote, "Wheat is the same story as rice

The 'price of wheat'* rose from 400 something USD in april 2007 to 875 USD in april 2008. That's an increase of about 100%. The 16% devaluation of the USD against the EURO in that same time period cannot explain this raise."

Check out the econbrowser link (#38)

When priced in euros, commodities have gone up less than half as much this year as when priced in dollars. Put another way, the majority of the difference is the decline of the dollar.

So what are you telling me? Did the human race manage to hit Peak Oil, Peak Rice, Peak Wheat, Peak Copper, and Peak Gold all in the same year?

Cheers.

Spengler's articles tend to be rambling, occasionally punctuated by lucidity.

And though he doesn't show it in this article, he covers up a reeking xenophobia with pseudo-erudition.

In this article("Rice, death and the dollar") he just demonstrates his lack of facility with the concept of causality.

Bajaj:

Since you're unwilling to look at the numbers I will spill it out for you.

"When priced in euros, commodites have gone up less than half as much this year as when priced in dollars."

Wheat prices:

Approx. 450 USD, april 2007 = approx. 328 EUR
875 USD, april 2008 = 551 EUR

Price increase in USD = 94%
Price increase in EUR = approx. 67%

USD devaluation percentage for total price increase = approx. 29%

Here's another link from bonddad, just this morning:

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/04/closer-look-at-currency-markets.html

The dollar's slide accelerated starting last summer, just at the time the Fed got rolled by Wall Street. It's perfectly obvious on the graph. Period.

Cheers.

I'm arguing with people about the relative importance of currency moves vs. the unitary explanation of "Peak Oil!" As I see it, (a) either we've managed to hit Peak Everything! all in the same year, or (b) the wobbling of the dollar as the world's reserve currency has led to monumental hedging in commodities.

As BfromB put it, I think option "b" is correct, except that some additional portion of the commodities rise may reflect not only speculation, but a lack of confidence in resource control by Europe relative to America: can a strong Europe stabilize the world in the same way as the United States did? Maybe not. . .

#48

It's not an either or proposition. It's both.

(b) is mearly the response to (a) by those who recognize (a)

I agree with John on option "b" put forth by Bajaj. Unfortunate, but speculation tends not to last too long. Hopefully the situation will resolve before too many folks starve. Warmest regards.

Hedging is not the root of the problem.

In my opinion the source of price increases in crops is a) increased biofuel production, b) increased meat production, c) stagnation of crop production world-wide.

Hedging may play a part though.

"Whatever the reasons, the Earth simply cannot sustain a population of 6.6 billion with almost 50 species a day disappearing forever for the past several decades." Vanessa #40

It ain't too few $, but too many people...

You win the prize, because we have reached over carrying capacity and can only keep it going by pumping cheap energy into it. Sad but true. Warmest regards, Dot.

"Hedging is not the root of the problem." Irvine Welsh

Perhaps not the root, but at least a large limb. Biofuel production is just getting going, and needs to be nipped now to avert a disaster in food. The UN needs to step up on this one and prohibit fuel from current foodstuffs, or at least slap on a prohibitive tariff. Meat production is certainly a factor, since the benefit to cost ratio is something on the order of 1 to 10, the way we grow it.

And that is funny. I grew up on the farm, and we fed our cattle grass and hay that we cut, only rarely giving them grain, and only when it was really cold, to sustain them. Well, we would give our old cow a quart of grain while my Grandmother milked her, but three to five gallons of milk for a quart of grain was a fair trade.

Another funny thing. You can not buy Prime beef at the store. Usually you get Select, rarely Choice. Select is pretty much grass fed, and Choice is only a little fatter. Prime goes to high end restaurants and requires a tremendous amount of grain to marble it.

The stagnation of crop production is likely the most significant, and in my opinion has to do with diminishing water supplies. I do not know how to tackle that one except to conserve. Warmest regards, Dot.

#53

We CAN'T keep it going in the same direction.
Period.

Glenn Beck was speaking on this last night. I was channel surfing this am and caught the rerun. He was telling people that some places like Cosco were limiting the amount of rice or in some cases wheat, in stores in the US. I expect it will get worse now. Thanks Glenn, if there is a run on the stores, we know who to blame.

Commodities, valued in dollars, take a while to reflect the market. While the loss of value of the dollar is the most significant cause, it is not the only one. Look at the charts, the dollar has lost half of its value since 2001 (who took office then?). I am not aware that Europe is much of wheat, corn, rice, or soy producer. Dot.

"I am not aware that Europe is much of wheat, corn, rice, or soy producer. Dot."

Come again?

I'm not going to look up the numbers for you but the EU-27 produces vast quantities of cereal crops.

#56

The link to the story is at #30 if you are interested.

#58

Thank you!

#57

I used the wrong word.

I should have said exporter, not producer. Europe pretty much feeds itself. They have little impact on the rest of the world. Arkansas produces more rice than most countries, and much of it is exported. Not trying to argue, and warmest regards, Dot.

Please help a stupid person.

I have been wondering this for awhile. Am I do believe that SPECULATORS on Wall Street are now venturing into food, as they did oil, driving up the prices?

If so, shouldn't this be, well, illegal? Because while they make a bundle of cash, people starve.

I know it's much more complicated than this, but am I on the right track?

What was the population of the world 100 years ago?
What was the foot print of the average person then?

How much was the average home 50 years ago? How much is the basic starter home now?

What happened in the last 50 years to make us such consumers?
A typical meal for one at a restaurant could feed a whole family.

6.6 billion people and most are consuming enough for two or three people.

Do we stop creating more people?

I think there are ways to create more than we consume.
But the old ways of doing things have to change, otherwise we will eat up our planet.

You can't see the future with the eyes of the past and you can't face our challenges with the worn out broken policies that created them.

derek

Vanessa, you are correct, but the cash cow of speculation is not likely to be done away with anytime soon. Would that it were. Warmest regards, Dot.

derek

Just curious. How would you change the way we are doing things on an individual basis?

bonnie

#30 New York Sun Article "Food Rationing Confronts Breadbasket of the World"

This "crisis" is a direct result of disastrous fiscal and credit policy. The dollar has tanked, commodities skyrocket. It's not supply, it's the hyperinflation of commodities, leading to hoarding and then, shortages. Welcome to disaster capitalism.

It is here... but the disaster in the other hemisphere is the result of shortages. There is less food available now than there was before. And things are going to get worse. While the US may have problems, I doubt we are going to have the food riots and stabbings (I heard 16 people killed in food lines in Egypt in the last month). But things are getting really dire in the rest of the world.

The article cited here claims China is using rice as a hedge against the dollar. There is a shortage of grain, but there is enough grain, and it's being tied up by traders hedging against future price increases and declining dollar.

Hoarding, whether physically or through trade contracts, is ALWAYS one of the reliable signs of a food crisis, as is the anger turned against those who hoard now in the hope of either having some for themselves when things get REALLY bad, or selling it for a profit once people are hungrier and more inclined to part with their money.

This just means that the Long Illusion is over. Economics, trade, and food supplies are back on a "normal" footing, and will repeat patterns seen in Greece, Rome, Byzantium, and the medieval kingdoms, instead of some fantasy-land of Eternal Plenty. Read history for more details.

"Vanessa, you are correct, but the cash cow of speculation is not likely to be done away with anytime soon. Would that it were. Warmest regards, Dot."

But, but, but, people are STARVING TO DEATH.

That seems a compelling reason to stop speculators from trading commodities.

Are there any who trade commodities at IB? If so, could you please explain your reasoning? Why would you engage in an activity that leads to the deaths of millions of people?

I'm only 25, but I feel like a crabby old woman. "In my day, folks did not let people starve to death so they could buy go by a ten-million-dollar condo in Miami."

Ref. #64

This won't last, though it will last way too long for those who are hungry. While we here have been in la-la land, I know you don't mean to say the rest of the world has been under this delusion. Hunger is a regular experience in many parts of the globe. We have a great deal of work to do and it isn't made easier when speculators are driving prices. There are areas of this world that are so underutilized agriculturally, a change in trade policy and a reinvestment in third world agriculture will make all the difference between famine and small scale shortages. You've almost made the most critical point of all, having all the food in the world does nothing if you can't afford it. We may see the distopian world we fear, but it will be by our own hand if it comes to pass.

Yes, Glenn Beck was speaking of this last night on his show. I was channel surfing this am and caught the rerun. The more attention it gets, the more people will start buying up extra.

Dot

I don't think the script for what we are about to be confronted with has been written yet because it has never happened before.

#65, I do not trade food commodities, but I have a retirement mutual fund that does the precious metals thing, but I have never starved from lack of gold or silver, nor starved anyone else.

While I agree with you in principle, I just do not see how banishing trading in food commodities could be done. Unfortunately, those traders tend to keep the market going.

It is a complicated and unfortunate system. Warmest regards, Dot.

#68, philosophically speaking we may differ in how we interpret the events. History repeats itself... noting is new...or life is non-deterministic...we create out own reality...
Warmest regards, Dot.

"Glenn Beck was speaking of this last night on his show. I was channel surfing this am and caught the rerun. The more attention it gets, the more people will start buying up extra."

67. Posted by Vanessa

I would find another source. I wouldn't trust Glenn Beck to report accurately on the weather from the middle of a hurricane.

Dot

While history does repeat itself, it is never the same. This is a good conversation and I want to continue, but I have duties to attend ...can we continue later?

Best regards,

bonnie

Re. 69.

Received wisdom ...and I'm not saying it's correct, but it's widely believed by people who write and read stuff like The Economist, is that the trading system actually encourages and increases food production as well as optimizing distribution, therefore reducing starvation overall. Which it might do, or have done for much of the last century.

The problem being at root that foreseen by Thomas Robert Malthus and derided at least as recently as my high school education: the wide availability of affordable food led to a massive increase in human population, requiring ever-increasing production of food. Sooner or later, it was bound to hit the limit.

Glenn Beck and the New York Sun?

Why are the neocons running with this story? When they get all over something, you know someone is about to be invaded.

Huh. I thought the New York Sun only existed to explore the possibilities of a Cheney presidency.

"While the Sun claims "150,000 of New York City's Most Influential Readers Every Day," according to April 2007 article in The Nation, its [the Sun's] own audit indicates that "the Sun is selling 13,211 hard copies a day and giving away more than 85,000. (By contrast, the Daily News sells about 700,000 copies a day.) In an attempt to lasso subscribers in certain New York ZIP codes, the Sun recently offered free subscriptions for a full year, an unusual way for a newspaper to build circulation."
Source:
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070430/sherman

"Why are the neocons running with this story? When they get all over something, you know someone is about to be invaded."

They've got our food!

Not sure which nation is 'They', but surely we'll invade to protect our rights to the crops they're growing.

#72 John,

Yes, as I said a bit ago, we are way beyond carrying capacity and only prop it up with cheap energy, and, after a bit to thinking, water as well.

Earth is pretty smart, though, and a three billion reduction in population in the next couple of decades is not outside the realm of speculation. Warmest regards, Dot.

#75 is the impersonator...hacker...nice comment though...

#76...#75 me neither. But, nice imitation and consistency of my style and views. I have been here at IB long enough to know it isn't John who's trying to impersonate me.

#71 Bonnie, I only visit IB intermittently, sure we can exchange ideas in the future.

Warmest regards, Dot.

Farmers need to hedge. A farmer planting in spring doesn't want to (literally) bet the farm on the price of his crop in fall. So he/she buys some price protection by hedging his/her bets in the commodities market. This is a good thing.

What is bad is trillions of dollars, no doubt much of which is leveraged (i.e., money borrowed to "invest") speculating on a price rise in an asset class that people need to eat to survive.

Cheers.

"Not sure which nation is 'They', but surely we'll invade to protect our rights to the crops they're growing."~John

Maybe that's the point...

Remember the Bush panacea - "Go Shopping!"

Only people haven't been shopping as much lately. How very neoconish it would be to create a little economic stimulus package by way of a fear induced run on commodities.

Personally I didn't notice any shortages on anything when I was at the store on last weekend. Looked to be plenty of flour, rice, etc. to me.

Food Crisis and the global food supply is an important story. Unfortunately, the New York Sun is not a credible source for ... well ... anything. I would like to see some reporting on domestic food shortages -- if they exist -- from a more credible outlet.

Of course, with the current state of journalism, that might mean that CNN gets some General (Ret.) reciting Pentagon talking points ...(I am sure IB folks are aware of the big story broken a few days ago by NY times about Pentagon and their use of the media pundits for Iraq War Propaganda...)

Ref. 80, if you haven't heard about it... afaik I haven't seen any discussion at IB...Read(with link to the NY Times piece):

Bombshell 'NYT' piece on military/media propaganda: My view by Greg Mitchell at dKos

By now you have probably heard about what might be the mainstream news article in recent weeks, the front-page David Barstow epic in today's New York Times on how the Pentagon, starting in 2002, assembled a crew of retired military officers to disseminate propaganda via all-to-willing network and cable news outlets. I can't begin to summarize or do justice to this report here, you will simply have to follow the link below. Barstow aptly refers to this as "a kind of media trojan horse."

Even if it confirms what you have already sensed -- you are no dummies -- the details are truly damning and shocking. (It's more Orwell than oh,well.) And it continues up to the present day, with the revelation that Gen. Petraeus met with members of this propaganda group just two weeks ago. "Anything we can do help," one analyst described this most recent meeting.

But to get you started, a few points to keep in mind:

-- The article has at least three tracks: One, the Pentagon deploying the analysts -- some 75 in number -- and the TV outlets happy to run with them; two, the analysts' further conflict-of-interest in being tied to defense contractors with billions of dollars invested in the war effort; three, the complete lack of interest by the TV outlets in either of the first two connections, or ignoring what they did know. In fact, the networks raised no objections to the Pentagon paying for trips by the analysts.

-- The effort began in "selling the war" -- going where even Judy Miller feared to tread -- and there are some startling admissions by some team members that they knew they were being sold a fairy tale on WMD, but went along with it anyway. The moral bankruptcy is truly disgusting.

-- One analyst who did dare to criticize the Pentagon in one TV appearance was summarily kicked off the propaganda bus. In fact, the others followed the Pentagon talking points to the letter -- almost to the word. The Pentagon helped two of them craft a Wall Street Journal piece.

-- While the focus of the article is very much on the TV propaganda (Fox News, of course, way in the lead) the New York Times admits that it published "at least" nine op-eds by the propagandists. And that paper, and all the other leading newspapers, quoted members of the group often. I'll be looking into that angle myself starting now, as a natural sequel to my book on Iraq and the media. Update: I've already found one gruesome example: http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003791666

-- Besides helping the companies they were tied to, some of the analysts also got $500 to $1000 per appearance on TV. Rest easy, Gen. Wesley Clark was not on the official Pentagon team.

I'll leave off here so you can actually go to the article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/washington/20generals.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Greg Mitchell's new book is So Wrong for So Long: How the Press, the Pundits -- and the President -- Failed on Iraq. It features a preface by Bruce Springsteen and has been hailed by Daily Kos's own Susan G, Bill Moyers, Glenn Greenwald and others.

#77 thanks for understanding...Dot.

::::

Ref. #78 BfB

Indonesian Rice harvest next month.

Until then, most countries have banned exports.

More alarming is that China has banned exports of fertilizer.

#80 by Chris.

"Rationing" is the wrong word. Using it in the headline was inflammatory on the NY Sun's part. Also, the types of rice being mentioned are imported--they say nothing of the stocks of domestically grown rice. They also fail to point out that some nations like the Philippines are started to decrease or ban the export of grain so they can better deal with shortages at home.

That was a poorly written article, designed to lead people to worry and panic.

"Food rationing" classically implies government control of supply.

To the extent it exists, this is a market-driven shortage, and markets will correct it, much as orange juice is "rationed" when there's a major freeze of the Florida citrus crop.

Hey Bonnie
Eat more watermelons for one. Yo, but growing more than you need and sharing is an easy way to create more than we consume. Every roof of every house and building should have solar cells and wind turbines. Our cars should be producing one kind of energy while it consumes another.
Another is our attitude. Why assume that we are destined to consume more than we create? What if by our attitude we could learn to produce more energy than we consume, as individuals.
I heard some where that there is a town, I believe in the Netherlands, where the mind set of the people is to create more than they consume.

Just some wishful thinking on my part.

derek

Oh and like I'm a very light eater. I don't consume much food. I live very close to work and I often commute on my bike. I have been mindful of conserving energy since the early 70's. My studio is natural lit so I don't use much electricity to work. I use candles more than light bulbs most of my life. Things like this and many more.

Yo, my footprint has been light and respectful on our shared earth.

But the balance of nature seems to be that for person like me there is some else who can eat my leftovers and and everything else in the fridge and still be hungry. There seems to be a hunger in some people that can not be fed, even when someone else is starving.

derek

All these arguments over complex economics are meaningless to the lady in the picture. She is hungry enough to do what to most seems incomprehensible.
So far all the complex problem solving has just made it harder for people like this lady.
Worthless policies spinning their wheels and consuming everything while this lady and her family and billions of others starve.

Complex issues need simple common sense solutions that we must discover. Or we can eat up our planet. Yo, either way. The choice is ours.

derek

Listen to me like I have a clue.

All I know is that for all the organizations and saints that have tried to end poverty over thousands of years seem to have just made it worse. There are more poor and starving people now than ever before. The war on drugs is another example. There are more drugs than ever before. The war on terrorism is the same. There seems to be more terrorists. Unless we are living in backwards world, something is not working.
I think it has something to do with that hunger in some people.
Or maybe what we focus on gets bigger.

Yo whatever it is, it's broken and we just keep using it.
I don't have the answers just observations from my perspective.
If I thought I had the answers maybe I'd become a politician so I could make changes. Yo

so goes my monthly rant

derek

Hey derek

I've stopped getting on my soap box. I think it is human nature to want more and bigger whether there is anymore to be had or not. The policies and complex economic analysis are neither good nor bad, they are simply the human proclivity to look at particulars rather than the entirety of any situation and say it's this or that that is the cause.

When we finally realize our true relationship with the earth and with Life itself, I think we will find the solutions. That's not going to happen overnight, but I think; and you and I have talked about this before, it is happening one person at a time. It's a new global dream of personal "enoughness." That's not going to help the people in Haiti at the moment, but it will help in the future.

In the meantime, my melon patch is ready to plant but the earth has to warm up a little more. When,if, we have our meet-up, I will bring the watermelons!!!

b

Hi Bonnie
I have noticed that when I am feeling cynical I tend to pull out my rickety soapbox and start yellin'. Yo. There is a sentimentalness when I see that box in the closet, cause for a time it was an important tool on my journey, when I felt the need to change the world. But I do realize it is a personal journey and it is not my job to change anything but myself.

I don't have to change the world it's already changin'.

I will look forward to eating watermelons and spitting out the seeds, cause my Mother told me if I swallowed them then watermelons would grow out of my ears. I believed her, I think I still do.

Thanks for the reminder Bonnie

derek

Yah, derek, crusades get the cart before the horse. They are all about what "They" should do for "Their own good", when the journey is not about that at all.

I keep doing things with my fav environmental groups, the organic growers assoc. and such, not so much to change other people but that I think nothing goes unnoticed in the big scheme of things.
Your Mother is very wise.

love
bonnie

That folks feel there is not enough Love to go round is the root cause of all hungers, I think.
There is an 'energetic' well within which is bottomless. People forever look without for others to provide and the 'not enough Love' becomes the self-fulfilling 'prophecy.'
Dear friends, if you are grasping what I struggle to say, please lower your bucket!

Hey Ed
I lost my bucket, maybe I put it in my soapbox.

I was born with the intense need to save the world. A Jesus complex. I have been discovering over the past year that it's just not healthy for me, yo it killed Jesus.
I am also learning that the only way for me to fill that bottomless well is to fill it with myself or maybe watermelon seeds.
I enjoy your spirit Ed and you have contributed a few seeds for my filling along the way.

piece

derek

When the world health organization says that this is not a healthy diet, then I must be satisfied that the United Nations and WHO know what is going on and may be doing something to correct it. Yes? No? I recall years ago a sign in Phoenix AZ that read the goal is to end world hunger, and as a promotion of some kind, was hyping some group to that cause. I should imagine that relief must be available somehow. Yet, the fact that this story should find its way here is very disturbing to me, and I hope that a remedy to the problem is imminent.

Hi Ed

It's that thing called Love that helps us see the entirety and not break it down into good and bad.
That's why my bucket's got a hole in it so I can water the watermelon seeds. :)))

B

#92 #95 Derek, Bonnie...dear friends!

Course tis all a metaphor whichever way we look at it, try to express it.
The great thing is to actually find the well. I say bottomless, meaning it will never run out. It's just our awareness that runs out. Then we leave so much clutter at the well-head that we have difficulty in locating it or there is no room to dip our cupped hands into the cool clear creative waters of Life.(The level never changes....Self adjusting ever.)
With respect, Derek, you don't fill your well. It fills you and inspires your Art and our own well can resonate for us if we, too are artists on the same page.
But there, we choose our metaphors, likewise, and hope for the similar page that sets us free with each other.....not a bad start and good for practice.

my hand-clasp to you both right now.

Thanks, DK.

I'm apt to agree: futures were traditionally designed to allow farmers--whose downside risk in market volatility is catastrophic--a simple way to lock in on a time & place for delivery.

Unfortunately, as you mentioned, it has become a fertiile ground for arbitrage (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage):

"One example of arbitrage involves the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. When the price of a stock on the NYSE and its corresponding futures contract on the CME are out of sync, one can buy the less expensive one and sell it to the more expensive market. Because the differences between the prices are likely to be small (and not to last very long), this can only be done profitably with computers examining a large number of prices and automatically exercising a trade when the prices are far enough out of balance. The activity of other arbitrageurs can make this risky. Those with the fastest computers and the smartest mathematicians take advantage of series of small differentials that would not be profitable if taken individually. "

I have a feeling that due to hedge funds, prices aren't converging to the ultimate market value until way too late because hedge funds aren't honoring normal "market signals". In other words, the price change is too steep too fast to even trade on.

Another possibility is actual delivery failure.

The end result is that it is DEVASTATING to farmers.

Here's some interesting poop on a dutch book (fascinating stuff):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_book

Intransivity, or the old game rock, paper, scissors.

Here's some interesting poop on a dutch book:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_book

Intransivity, or the old game rock, paper, scissors.

Well Ed
I'm gonna jump in have a swim.

peace a cake

derek

Well done, Derek.

I'm fasting!