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USD 200 Oil Super Spike: What Consequences?

ATCA - May 10, 2008

superspikeoil.bmp
Global Oil Super Spike

Dear Friends, most analysts laughed when Goldman Sachs predicted that oil would go to USD 100 a barrel more than two years ago. Brent crude is around USD 124 a barrel at present.

Crude prices have doubled in a year and risen six fold since 2002. Now Goldman Sachs is suggesting USD 200 on the upside of a super-spike within the next 24 months. This figure has also been mooted by some members of OPEC. Given the fundamentals on both demand and the supply side internationally there is a chance that the super-spike may well take place. The oil price is still rising and may get much higher than where we are at. World oil prices rose 1.4 percent on Wednesday, extending further into record territory amid intensifying worries over tight world supplies of diesel fuel. A US government report showed a decline last week in distillate inventories -- which include diesel and heating oil -- that brought stockpiles in the world's biggest energy consumer nearly 13 percent below a year ago.

Sovereign Stock-Piling... [Continues]

Rising Inflation... [Continues]

Demand Downturn... [Continues]

Conclusion

There is an extremely synchronised concatenation of global risks manifest in the three way convergence of the fuel, food and finance crises. Far from being isolated they are extremely interlinked. On the financial side, the price of equities is based on forward earnings calculated on the back of discounted cash flows. If future profit margins are going to be severely eroded by the oil super-spike, then the price-earning ratios at present -- which look low based on historic data -- are in fact extremely high in terms of future projections. Especially as earnings are revised downwards. On the food side, the agriculture industry has an extremely high dependence on oil and oil-based products because of farm mechanisation as well as the use of fertilizers. Food processing, storage and distribution is also extremely energy intensive. The bio-fuel production is eating into human food supply chains. This is an extremely mis-guided development. All in all the convergence of the "3F" crises -- fuel, food and finance -- is going to be extremely difficult to out-manoeuvre without a severe reduction in growth expectations. On the positive side, humanity may adjust its efficiency and consumption of carbon-based fuel significantly post the oil super-spike and in the process help the global environment!

Read the article at mi2g.net.

[ENDS]

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We welcome your thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes


DK Matai

Chairman
Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) & The Philanthropia
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ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 120 countries: including 1,000 Parliamentarians; 1,500 Chairmen and CEOs of corporations; 1,000 Heads of NGOs; 750 Directors at Academic Centres of Excellence; 500 Inventors and Original thinkers; as well as 250 Editors-in-Chief of major media.

The Philanthropia, founded in 2005, brings together over 1,000 leading individual and private philanthropists, family offices, foundations, private banks, non-governmental organisations and specialist advisors to address complex global challenges such as countering climate chaos, reducing radical poverty and developing global leadership for the younger generation through the appliance of science and technology, leveraging acumen and finance, as well as encouraging collaboration with a strong commitment to ethics. Philanthropia emphasises multi-faith spiritual values: introspection, healthy living and ecology. Philanthropia Targets: Countering climate chaos and carbon neutrality; Eliminating radical poverty -- through micro-credit schemes, empowerment of women and more responsible capitalism; Leadership for the Younger Generation; and Corporate and social responsibility.
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Posted by ATCA at May 10, 2008 10:06 PM

  
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Comments

Hi DK,

It could be 4 F's.

Formidable Weather.

Having that here in the US.

One must take into account it's ability to affect oil supply chains, ports and well as food production.

Google trends shoes a big peak in the word "shortage". There is currently a shortage of HOPS to make beer for example.

Formidable Weather

There is a new data set; well it is actually an old data set that became important and meaningful. Microseisms are caused by large storm waves crashing into the shore that transfers energy to the land, and the resulting microseisms travel for thousands of miles. They are picked up on Seismometers that monitor earthquakes. These smaller vibrations caused by ocean storm waves were until recently considered noise. We have many years of these recordings that create a record of change.

The data examined showed a "systematic increase" in the number of storm-caused microseisms over the last two decades. An increase of about 6%, with an acceleration near the end. This data would represent only a small portion of the kinetic energy spectrum. Factoring other items to get the whole system picture we may actually be seeing a 30% increase in total system energy and based on the acceleration this energy increase could be 60% in two years. This would increase the system turbulence and the rate of change, which might mean a doubling of storm power and a tripling of vortex energy especially the micro vortices.


A long while back here and elsewhere I wrote the piece “1 Degree Counts.” Many would think what is the big deal over a few degrees over a number of years? Not much as it relates to your individual skin surface experience.

Water changes “state” at 32 + 1 degree from solid ice to flowing liquid which sets molecules into motion; releasing stored kinetic energy. Water is able to convert gravitational energy into new energy forms and vectors. It is still not known, the volume of effect if any, on the total energy in the system and how much is transferred to other forms from the change of state occurring in massive amounts of water.

This one degree change can increase the energy absorption factor. Over a large region this one degree is a huge “change of state” that further increases the rate of change, resulting in a snowballing effect. So we have an increase of kinetic energy and an increase of photon energy, which combined produce an increase in phonons, vibration energy.

It is not entirely clear where the additional energy is coming from of if it is one source or multiple sources increasing in concert.

This new energy must be something that we do not monitor or know about yet. Known sources of energy don’t add up as expected to account for the increases.

Taking all the numbers and analysis we would expect to need to migrate 30 – 60 % of the population within the next 2 – 4 years. Could you imagine migrating 60% of the population? If we do this we would need to rebuild in the new locations. Common sense would have us realize this and take this future required investment and invest it in the present to build “sustainable adaptive decentralized” infrastructure in place eliminating some of the future inconvenience and need for migration.

The two immediatly impactful solutions this one suggested in 2005 are still viable.

Plant Amaranth (Super Food)

Remineralize the surface soil with Rock Dust and sea weed.

What are the things that soil remineralization does?
1)Traps CO2 removing it from the atmosphere.
2)Grows much bigger disease resistant crops.
3)Eliminates need for petroleum based fertilizers.
4)Eliminate the need for genetically modified foods.
5)Eliminates the need for pesticides
6)Increases drought resistance of crops.
7)Increases resistance of crops to increased solar radiation.
8)Reduces fossil fuel consumption involved in the manufacturing and delivery of petroleum
9)Improves the health of the 80% of the population suffering from malnutrition.
In summary REDUCES THE COST OF FOOD and increases the supply and reduces the number of toxins and green house gassed created in the environment.
You do not need a degree in science to say the words “We need to spread rock dust on the surface soil” and you don’t need a scientific degree to understand why.
Now which industries would have revenue flows reduced as a result of implementation this solution?
So there it is one of the simple to execute solutions. Now why are they not coming off the lips of those whose stated intentions are to help the world?

There are two essential amino acids lysine and methionine that are missing from many grains, fruits and nuts. However they are found in Amaranth in abundant quantities. Also calcium and iron also missing from vegetarian diets is abundant in Amaranth. Quinoa is another grain (pseudocereal) comparable to Amaranth as a super food.

POPEYE THE SAILOR MAN

The famous cartoon strip character that later became an animated cartoon series and eventually a movie; was famous for popping open a can of spinach and eating it which gave him super human strength.

This was based on a story learned by Elzie Crisler Segar, creator of the Popeye character, of a plant called Amaranth, the vegetable version which is called Bayam – (Chinese spinach ).

The Aztecs considered this plant to have supernatural powers it was known as the "mystical grains of the Aztecs," "super grain of the Aztecs," and the "golden grain of the Gods" The grain was noted to be nourishing to infants and to provide energy and strength to warriors on extended trips and in battle. So Aztec warriors would consume it to give them superior strength.
Due to mistranslation though it was portrayed as spinach which is of the same family (Amaranthaceae) but is different from the actual grain Amaranth which is attributed these mystical powers of strength. The myth about spinach and its high iron content probably helped support the idea that spinach was a plant providing super powers. This may have first been propagated by Dr. E. von Wolf in 1870, because a misplaced decimal point in his publication led to an iron-content figure that was ten times too high. In 1937, German chemists reinvestigated this "miracle vegetable" and corrected the mistake. It was described by T.J. Hamblin in British Medical Journal, December 1981.
So Popeye consuming this specific plant to gain superior strength is not just a myth but is supported by science. The error is that it is not American Spinach or even Chinese spinach but correctly the Aztec use of a plant for superior strength is based on Amaranth Grain.

AESOP'S FABLES
THE ROSE AND THE AMARANTH

A Rose and an Amaranth blossomed side by side in a garden, and the Amaranth said to her neighbour, "How I envy you your beauty and your sweet scent! No wonder you are such a universal favourite." But the Rose replied with a shade of sadness in her voice, "Ah, my dear friend, I bloom but for a time: my petals soon wither and fall, and then I die. But your flowers never fade, even if they are cut; for they are everlasting."

The Aztecs believed Amaranth had magical properties that would give them amazing strength. Because of this, it became one of the main foods of the Aztec royalty.

Click my name for more.

infiniteplaythemovie.com/amaranth.aspx

I suggested this one year ago almost to the day.

"Plant Amaranth, enough to feed all and store an additional third for the future and put in place a method of speedy distribution."

He that has the faith of a mustard seed shall move mountains. This was an instruction for the future generation.

Crush them and spread the rock dust in the surface soil, remineralize the earth or she will do it for you. The weathering of rocks removes C02 and the food output doubles and the plants are resistant to disease, drought, and the suns rays and it even affects the magnetic field.
If you have faith do what I say, of course I could also be crazy :) but my intentions are born of spirit and it moves me to speak. Sounds like a good story doesn't it?

Nature is not flawed, our perception is.


1. Posted by Richard Thomas on May 14, 2007 02:11 PM

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