Enmity is the result of fear opposing hope. Scary movies rule!

Americans love a close race, and will often root for the underdog.

Notwithstanding the preferences of a jealous God once again, Rabbi?

The only problem is: "one the strong military defense of 'our' interests, and second on the strong commitment to ending global (and domestic) poverty, homelessness, hunger, inadequate education, inadequate health care, and repairing the global environment"; this is an ideal that has two legs walking in opposite directions.

A strong military defense of "OUR" interests is always in opposition to ending homelessness, hunger, and providing 'adequate' healthcare.

shalom

Maybe dear Rabbi, Barak Obama simply gives really good speeches and nothing more. He has been a great big mirror reflecting whatever his supporters wanted to see. You saw the radical left in him, many saw some weird utopian ideal, "The One". But alas it has been just a Hollywood set. Looks real but the word that comes to mind that has become Deepak's favorite these days- Illlusion.

If he announces Joe Biden as his veep today Rabbi, I hope you can still enjoy a nice restful Shabbat. Good luck,

Best,

Steve

" Do not relay on nobles,
nor on a human being,
for he holds no salvation.

When his spirit departs he returns to his earth,
on that day his plans all perish.

Praiseworthy is one whose help is Jacob's God,
whose hope in in Hashem, his God."

-Psalm 146

Guys lighten up! Its a looooong way to go! And learn to read the significance of polls... people don't vote for vp...and there's going to be convention bounces...Polls matter after the labor day...and presidential debates are crucial...see the electoral math...

The Insider’s Guide to Election Polls

By Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, an independent polling and political-analysis Website.

The opening of the Democratic National Convention on Monday will mark the beginning of the most intense period in general-election history, with two conventions, four debates, and a campaign that may stretch into as many as twenty states all compressed into a window of barely more than 70 days.

All of this is going to produce an enormous volume of polling — and even more commentary on what those polls mean. But polls are less accurate than they claim to be: While a typical reported margin of error might be three or four points, the actual average error in polls conducted in this year’s primaries was closer to seven points. Polls were never really intended to be predictive. They establish voter preferences at the time of survey, but don’t account for how those preferences might change. And there are vast and largely unresolved differences of opinion on methodology among pollsters.

In other words, polls require context to be understood, and their results are easy for media commentators to cherry-pick in order to advance a preferred story. Here are twelve key indicators to watch.

Some polls are better than others. The volume of polling typically accelerates rapidly after Labor Day — but more doesn’t necessarily mean better. And often it is the boutique firms, rather than the major brand names, that have tended to have the best results. You can trust polls from smaller firms like SurveyUSA, Rasmussen Reports, Mason-Dixon, Research 2000, and Quinnipiac. But be skeptical of what you see from Zogby — the firm that gave McCain a five-point lead yesterday — American Research Group, Fox News, and even the venerable Gallup.

Six points is the convention over-under. Where there is a convention, there is a convention bump. Each party gets the equivalent of about ten hours of free prime-time coverage between the three major networks (buying that ad time would run them a cool $180 million each). The key benchmark to keep in mind is six points; that has been the average size of a convention bump in the modern era. A convention that produces a bounce of more than six points can be considered a success and fewer than six points a failure.

But beware the convention hangover. This year, however, the convention bounces will be difficult to evaluate. The conventions come back-to-back, and John McCain will probably announce his vice-presidential nominee somewhere in between. Moreover, convention bounces can be fairly persistent, lasting as many as three or four weeks after the event. The first clean read we will get on the post-convention landscape will probably be immediately before the first presidential debate on September 26.

Watch the early voting in Ohio. About 20 percent of voters cast their ballots early in 2004, and that number is likely to increase as states continue to liberalize their voting rules. This year Ohio has created a seven-day window beginning on September 30 in which voters may register and vote at the same time. Pay special attention to breakouts of early voting numbers in the polls; these are the only voters that are 100 percent sure to turn in their ballots.

Don’t start panicking until October. The polls typically begin to increase exponentially in accuracy about one month before the election. As such, this is the first time that a candidate can fall too far behind to plausibly catch up.

Watch who’s watching the debates. The final presidential debate, on October 15, is probably the last opportunity to affect voter preferences at the wholesale level; after that, it all comes down to electoral math and ground game. But the debates may also provide some other important clues about the election. Historically, there is a rather strong relationship between the TV ratings for the presidential debates and turnout rates on Election Day, with each additional 10 million TV viewers translating to an increase in turnout of about 1.5 percent. If the audience for the debates is something like 50 million, expect fairly ordinary turnout. But if it’s more like 60, 70, or even 80 million viewers, turnout could be extremely high. That would favor Obama.

Only a five- to seven-point lead in national polls is safe. The one thing that’s certain about the day before the election is that the pundits won’t know as much as they claim to. That is because some elections can break very late. In 1980, for instance, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan were virtually tied in polling just days before the election, but Reagan wound up winning by nearly ten points. In 2004, 9 percent of the electorate made its choice either on Election Day itself or on the three days immediately preceding it — movement that may come too late to be picked up by the polling.

Forget the Bradley Effect… Conventional wisdom holds that preelection polls tend to overstate the performance of black candidates — a phenomenon known as the Bradley Effect, named after 1982 Los Angeles mayoral candidate Tom Bradley, an African-American who narrowly lost his election after having a significant lead in the polls. More contemporary research, however, reveals that this effect disappeared at some point in the early nineties: Voters may still vote based on the race of the candidates, but their preferences will be reflected accurately by the polls. And in the Democratic primaries, it was Barack Obama rather than Hillary Clinton who overperformed his polls, beating his preelection averages by a margin of about three points.

…but beware the Verizon Effect. Nearly half of voters under the age of 30 rely primarily or exclusively on cell phones rather than landlines — and they will be off-limits to many pollsters, who do not include cell phones in their samples. Pollsters have various techniques to attempt to correct for this problem, but they may not be entirely satisfactory — research conducted by the Pew Research Center revealed that Barack Obama gained three points when a supplementary cell-phone sample was included.

Ignore the exit polls. Matt Drudge will leak them. You are allowed to look at them. You are not allowed to take them seriously. Exit polls were never really intended to be used as early indicators of victory — rather, they are meant for post-facto, macro-level demographic analysis. Raw exit polls will not have had the demographic weights applied to them that normal polls get, and their methodology — which involves a bunch of college kids running around with clipboards outside a polling place — is not nearly as rigorous. Unweighted exit polls significantly overestimated John Kerry’s numbers in 2004 and inflated Barack Obama’s margins by an average of about seven points during the primaries.

Watch Indiana early… The canary in the election-night coal mine may be Indiana, which is one of those traditionally red states that Barack Obama is trying to compete in, and where the polls close especially early. If the networks are able to call Indiana for John McCain within 45 minutes of poll close, then Barack Obama is in for a long night. If they’re able to call it for Barack Obama at any point after polls close, then John McCain is in for a long night.

…and Colorado, Ohio, Michigan, and Virginia late. I hate to agree with Karl Rove, but there are four key battlegrounds in this election. If Barack Obama wins any two of those four states, he is very likely to win the election.

Aloha Rabbi

You know the story gets more interesting as we go along. This is your portal to self govern: The central dichotomy in American politics is not Left/Right but fear/hope.

Hope is the same root as fear. Isn't that the story of the war propaganda book the bible.. old or new:) step out of the box, empower with your heart.

Schizophrenia
Man is split. Schizophrenia is a normal condition of man--at least now. It may not have been so in the primitive world, but centuries of conditioning, civilization, culture and religion have made man a crowd--divided, split, contradictory.... But because this split is against his nature, deep down somewhere hidden the unity still survives. Because the soul of man is one, all the conditionings at the most destroy the periphery of the man. But the center remains untouched--that's how man continues to live. But his life has become a hell. The whole effort of Zen is how to drop this schizophrenia, how to drop this split personality, how to drop the divided mind of man, how to become undivided, integrated, centered, crystallized. The way you are, you cannot say that you are. You don't have a being. You are a marketplace--many voices. If you want to say 'yes', immediately the 'no' is there. You cannot even utter a simple word 'yes' with totality.... In this way happiness is not possible; unhappiness is a natural consequence of a split personality.

Osho Dang Dang Doko Dang Chapter 3

Commentary:
The person on this card brings a new twist to the old idea of "getting stuck between a rock and a hard place"! But we are in precisely this sort of situation when we get stuck in the indecisive and dualistic aspect of the mind. Should I let my arms go and fall head-first, or let my legs go and fall feet-first? Should I go here or there? Should I say yes or no? And whatever decision we make, we will always wonder if we should have decided the other way. The only way out of this dilemma is, unfortunately, to let go of both at once. You can't work your way out of this one by solving it, making lists of pros and cons, or in any way working it out with your mind. Better to follow your heart, if you can find it. If you can't find it, just jump--your heart will start beating so fast there will be no mistake about where it is! from Osho Experience.

Yeeehawww!!! I'm having good day! When our favorite Rabbi, and our favorite Guru, start crying in their beer....I know it's a good day for America!

I think little Barry Obama....just might be on a sinking ship....hope without substance....oratory without resolve....all adds up to ... Savile Row, with nobody home!

W
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:)

Hello Rabbi,

why is Obama down in the polls?....well, I tried my best for the Democrats to give him more time in the oven...he was not quite ready for the big time...Hillary could have been the bridge over troubled waters for four years and taken John McCain down with one hand tied behind her back and that includeds all the dumb stuff Bill would have said along the way.

oh, well...Barak still has as good a chance as any...McCain's lead is slim to nothing....and well, he either didn't actually know how rich he is because his wife takes care of the dough and the internet or he forgot...let us hope that it is not because he forgot...because he seems to be having...what one would call...."little senior moments"...now, this might give folks pause...John better get a grip, I do not think the voters will allow for anymore...."little senior moments" of forgetting...I mean we do not want to have a President we have to quiz each morning to make sure he is here and now....by greeting him each morning with "Mr. President do you know your name?..."no, forget about the homes, we know you know that, now...name, Mr. President?"..."John McCain"...."and what year is it Mr. President?"...."200..hiccup..9.....MY Friend."...."phew," says McCain's aide, "this is going to be a long four years."

Barak Obama is still in the running...it ain't over until the last vote is counted...

have a grand day all....ruth

Steve and Norm,
I think you both secretly wish Barack will be victorious and will not disappoint but will follow through on his word. I think you're using reverse psychology to get him into the office.

Tipper,
Thank you for all your posts. No reverse psychology here.

Also, Patty,

Schizophrenia and Dissociative Identity Disorder (Multiple Personality or Split Personality) are not the same thing.

"Despite its etymology, schizophrenia is not synonymous with dissociative identity disorder, previously known as multiple personality disorder or split personality; in popular culture the two are often confused.

Schizophrenia (pronounced /ˌskɪtsəˈfriːniə/), from the Greek roots schizein (σχίζειν, "to split") and phrēn, phren- (φρήν, φρεν-, "mind") is a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a mental disorder characterized by abnormalities in the perception or expression of reality. It most commonly manifests as auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions or disorganized speech and thinking in the context of significant social or occupational dysfunction.

A person diagnosed with schizophrenia may demonstrate disorganized and unusual thinking and speech, auditory hallucinations, and delusions. Social isolation commonly occurs for a variety of reasons. Impairment in social cognition is associated with schizophrenia, as are symptoms of paranoia from delusions and hallucinations, and the negative symptoms of apathy and avolition. In one uncommon subtype, the person may be largely mute, remain motionless in bizarre postures, or exhibit purposeless agitation; these are signs of catatonia."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schizophrenia

"Dissociative Identity Disorder (DID), as defined by the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), is a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a condition in which a single person displays multiple distinct identities or personalities, each with its own pattern of perceiving and interacting with the environment.[1] The diagnosis requires that at least two personalities routinely take control of the individual's behavior with an associated memory loss that goes beyond normal forgetfulness.."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissociative_identity_disorder#cite_note-dsm-0

I understand the gist of what you're saying. The impact would be greater if 'schizophrenia' were left out, or if our schizophrenic characteristics were also addressed.

Peace,
Sharon

Aloha Sharon

The above quote is from Osho's book: Dang Dang Doko Dang,

"Dang Dang Doko Dang represents the sound of the drum beaten by a Zen master in an existential lesson for a disciple. As well as symbolizing the poetic quality of Zen, the title represents the special flavor of this collection of Osho's commentaries on well-known Zen stories. "Zen is a way of dissolving philosophical problems, not of solving them," he explains. "It is a way of getting rid of philosophy, because philosophy is a sort of neurosis.""

In essence I feel what he is saying is when ever we are split minded we have a thinking disease which is inclusive of all names.

Have you listened to Jill Bolte Taylor explain the brain, from her perspective after she had a stroke? if not your into a treat:) click my name.. if you haven't. love patty

Hi Patty. Aloha :)
Thank you. I will listen to this over the weekend (the computer I'm using right now has no sound). I would also still like to watch your earlier suggestion, Nassim Haramein. I might do better if I could read it instead of watch it.
Love,
Sharon

Aloha Sharon

And I just want to add it is important to identify vs. compare. When your on the bottom of the wireless food chain it is delicious. So it doesn't matter what you call mental illness.. Schizophrenia ah.. Alzheimer's.. cognitive distancing etc. It is always either or "and both." It is the we as I am that I am. Otherwise it is split minded. The election already has happened, for the past shakes the hand of the future, all there is the now. There are no losers. I used to do this affrimation: when I let them win, I am winning all the time. In Chinese the character for intelligence includes the heart. It is always important to go deeper. Have a stroke:) as Jill Bolte Taylor shares she would do it over again in a heart beat. Oprah Interviewed her.. I am not sure if you can still link up from Oprah's site. Jill Bolte Taylor is fantastic.. the meek are ready..love patty

Dear Rabbi,

I think Obama is working from the Wisdom Based Presidency Papers. He must get into the Presidency first before he could initiate some of the things that you speak of.

Some of the changes cannot be expressed in short format because some would react in fear not understanding how the change will actually work to their benefit.

There is one other hidden factor in all this and that is SEcRET AGENT 013. You have heard of the fictional based on a real agent 007 I am sure.

Of course the existence of this agent is not a secret any more. Read about it on 013.me or click my name.

Har har har! Miss knows you to Schmuel and Norm are closet liberals! Yeah Baby!

Here is today's e-mail from Townhall which I know you two will appreciate: "Click now to order your NOBAMA yard sign and bumper sticker set along with your Townhall Magazine with our Obamageddon feature."

Click me name ye who fear the day of Obamageddon!

Har har har . . .

WOW!!!! Craig

All that for just $34.95. Such a steal.

:)

bonnie

I know Bonnie!

Those capitalist dogs!

An Obamageddon sign would be kinda kewl!

Har har

Dear Rabbi Lerner and everyone,

It is my belief that after such a long exposure to the candidate's rhetoric, the more evident it has become that Obama just does not wear well. He has demonstrated that he does not have the maturity or judgement required of a leader who must be able to use discretion in dealing with much more seasoned world leaders.

Have you ever heard the expression, "What you say about another says more about you than it does about your subject"? If a major issue of a candidate's ability to govern is how much property he/she owns then the majority of the people in government will be eliminated. Obama himself lives in opulence in a million dollar home while his half brother in Africa is living amidst squalid circumstances. What about the major liberal political figures in our Congress and Senate? To name a couple of them -Representative Nancy Pelosi has parlayed her position into great financial gain. What about Senator Diane Feinstein who has managed to direct major business contracts to her husband for tremendous personal gain?

Once you open the Pandora's Box regarding monetary holdings of the members of government you will discover that a huge majority have become rich while in office and not necessarily by the most admirable use of their positions of influence.

Let's stop the hypocritical criticism in the campaign. While we're at it, let's put an end to the lack of impartial reporting by the news media.

Best Wishes,

"Betsy" S.

The pre-convention polls may not mean very much at all, but we cannot ignore one new poll in Michigan.

The Detroit Free Press has Obama moving to a seven point lead.

Most significant is Obama’s seventeen point lead among independent voters–a group which McCain has been going after since his success in the 2000 Republican primary.

On this poll, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com writes:

"A key poll in a key state has changed the character of the electoral math. That is Ann Selzer's poll for the Detroit Free Press in Michigan, which shows Barack Obama with a 7-point lead. ...Selzer polls are the gold standard -- the highest-rated polls in our database -- and so these numbers need to be taken seriously.

Again, the question is not whether Michigan is winnable for John McCain -- it most certainly is, and we have him taking the state about 30 percent of the time. But it's a matter of whether Michigan is close enough to be the tipping point in a close election, and with Obama leading in each of the last seven polls of the state from six different polling firms, that is increasingly uncertain.

If Michigan is off the table, then that gives Obama an advantageous position in terms of the electoral math: he essentially just needs to swing one of Colorado, Ohio, or Virginia to win the election."

Oy Rabbi, such shpilkes you are having
Obama now becomes Obiden.

Don't hock a chinick, at least not in my direction.

Of course he must have been coerced, all excuses will be given, because Barak couldn't possibly have come up with Biden by himself.

Obama, the man thy name is change, chooses Biden the alter cocker to perhaps bring a little McCainesque to the camp? Perhaps?

Such a Shanda !

Cheers,

Steve

"Biden the alter cocker to perhaps bring a little McCainesque to the camp?"

Too bad, Biden can recall the number of houses he owns! Joe Biden, in 2005 was ranked 99th out of 100 senators in terms of personal wealth. Biden has not enriched himself through marriage, book deals, land swaps, or even betting on Intrade. While Obama (although enriched by two best selling books) and Biden fall in the bottom percentage of Senators in terms of net worth, McCain falls in the top 5%.

What more, Biden has been commuting from home to work on local train for 30 years. Unlike McCain who doesn't know what type of car he drives.

I wonder,
if Barack Obama's poll number will go down,
now that he has announced his running mate.

dear Rabbi Lerner,
"... if the "realists" win and Obama continues his run to the Center, the US may face a McCain presidency."

How do you (and your fellow 150 plus clergy) feel about Joe Biden as Obama's running mate?

~ Kate

Nate Silver at fivethirthyeight.com writes:

"It's a good choice. The media will love Joe Biden. He passes the ready-on-day-one-test. Older voters like him, which means that Pennsylvania probably isn't a swing state anymore, but that Florida might be."

"At the end of the day, Joe Biden is that one choice that is in fact fairly safe but nevertheless feels fairly bold. I'd expect Democrats to wake up tomorrow morning feeling pretty good about him."

"I wonder,
if Barack Obama's poll number will go down,
now that he has announced his running mate."

Concern trolling time...wow!

See "The Insider’s Guide to Election Polls" post #5

hi there Tipper,
what are your thoughts on the poll numbers for Barack Obama, now that he has chosen Biden as his running mate?

Some thoughts on Joe Biden as VP...

1) By choosing Biden (over Bayh, Kaine/Webb/Warner, Schweitzer etc) Obama has rejected the idea of using a favorite son to try and curry favor in a single state (since, let's face it, Delaware isn't a big concern).

2) If McCain picks Romney, which is looking very likely at this point, this is the first election in a very long time (possibly ever?) where there was no Southerner on either ticket. Given that Obama is making a play for parts of the South (albeit longshots in many cases), it's perhaps an indication that he recognizes it will ultimately come down to whether he can sell himself, not using a white dude as a carrot.

3)Finally, Biden, for better or worse, plays into the "experience" theme; he's a Cheney, except not, you know, evil. Expect the Republicans to hit on this as a sign of Obama's own inexperience (or else, as dampening his "change" message); again, as with the South thing, the VP pick will affect that much; it's all about the candidate himself.

I think Joe is a good choice, personally.

"what are your thoughts on the poll numbers for Barack Obama, now that he has chosen Biden as his running mate?"

Those "poll numbers" have little significance in the over all scheme of things. But we can expect a bounce due to the effective attacks on McCain and "Housing" and his economic policies. The next week will be DNC convention, hence there is going to be a bounce in polls. And a week later GOP will have its bounce. Well, and a lot of things can happen (other than the VP effect in the coming days) that can influence poll numbers.

Marc Ambinder opines:

"This is a formidable ticket, and a risky ticket, and not a comfort zone choice for Obama.

Put aside the obvious: Biden has foreign policy meat on his bones...He's a great debater... he has a working-class Scranton-bred Irish-Catholic heritage...he knows Washington very well...he has known tragedy in his life...

He was elected to the Senate as a change agent at the age of 29. He is comfortable but not wealthy -- he has not used the prerogatives of office to enrich his personal wealth, although his family has benefited from his stature.

Biden premised his presidential candidacy on the notion that Obama was unqualified and not ready from day one. You can expect that the McCain campaign or the RNC will run a national television advertisement featuring Biden's many and various quotations to this effect.

I gather that what impressed Obama about Biden is that Biden gets things done. He's a man of action. He's not a bullshitter. I also get the sense that Biden, 65, is pretty well aware that, at age 73 in eight years, he's not going to be a viable presidential choice, and thus convinced Obama that because the vice presidency would be his terminal position, the famous Biden ego will take a subordinate role.

I gather that Obama realizes that he needed a pick that would demonstrate some level of intellectual seriousness about the condition of the world. One of his sons heads for Iraq soon. Obama knows that, for Biden, getting Iraq right is much more than just about proving a point.

Biden is also a fighter on domestic policy. He touts as one of his greatest legislative accomplishments 1994's Violence Against Women Act.

Some liberals think he's a bully who got the Iraq war wrong (although Biden did try to pass a less bellicose resolution.) . But I suspect that the general response from Democrats will be "Great choice."

The criticism will focus on Biden's 1987 plagiarism bout, his support of credit card companies (he pushed the bankruptcy bill that Dems now hate), his comments about Obama, his racial obliviousness (the comment about Indian-Americans in 7/11).

In a normal year, this stuff would have disqualified him instantly.

That Obama (apparently) picked him demonstrates a recognition that the Democratic ticket ought to be more than just about Obama's personality... or a statement of bipartisan pragmatism... it's easy to float on gossamers when the world is safe, but when it's burning down, a guy like Biden is just the ticket."

happy sat everyon,

I just read an interesting piece about Barak Obama by James Carville at CNN.com

he says,"And my last piece of advice to Obama and his team is to just get mad about something. Obama's campaign seems so intent on branding him as a "cool and calm" leader.

Well, voters want to see a sense of urgency and outrage in their president: Outrage over our dependence on foreign oil; outrage over our increased cost of living, health care and education; outrage over declining incomes; outrage over an endless war and an idiotic foreign policy; and outrage over our country's loss of prestige over the last 7½ years.

To put it bluntly, Obama needs to get outraged over something other than "attacks on his patriotism."

When all the dust settles after Denver, if Obama can do these things between now and November 4, he just may become President Barack Obama. No convention or vice-presidential pick will matter as much as connecting with voters on these key issues."

the reason this strikes me is that after the Saddleback forum I too realized that their was something amiss with Barak Obama and his inabilty to express his outrage, his inability to get mad, from the gut......not the intellect....there is a difference...getting mad from the intellect only is being only half mad, half outraged, over something, it is not convincing, period...

Barak Obama's supporters and family and campaign have lauded his calmness, his coolness but it is turning out that is because of his inability to express fully with both gut and intellect his bare bones anger or outrage over something.....

John McCain can do this...he is great with his gut....but he doesn't have an intellect that is on par with Barak's....but Barak Obama's ability to really give power and substance to his intellect lies in his ability to express himself, fully....otherwise he comes off looking smart but ineffectual....as he did during the Saddleback forum. He relies on his intellect to slay the dragon...but the intellect needs the focus power and the store of energy that the gut has to offer for the challenge.....

bye ....ru

#29 ruth, excellent observation and interesting suggestion!

The republicans have long been seen as the party of "guts" (apart from other 3 gs, guns, gays and god) to win elections. I am sure, the Obama campaign is fully aware of that. And they sure have a solid game plan based on elctoral math and demographics. Just beacuse you are down in the polls doesn't mean that you change your game plan in the middle.

The drop in poll numbers, that PEEKED after his foreign trip(which was well AFTER he was seen as moving to the so called "center" as Rabi Lerner pointed out,) can be ascribed to the negative ads("celeb", "the one" et al,) by McCain and the Georgia crisis which coincided with Obama's week long vacation (which was important to him and family personally, but wasn't particularity poll friendly.)

Speaking of guts, Biden's speaking style is more aggressive than Obama's, which will help him be the attack dog Obama will need.

That said, Biden will only really be properly used if he's completely unleashed. A buttoned-up Biden is functionally useless because his greatest positives come off the cuff. Hopefully the Obama campaign realizes this and keeps him on a long leash, rather than the short one everyone else seem to be recommending.

"what are your thoughts on the poll numbers for Barack Obama, now that he has chosen Biden as his running mate?" --Kate

On the matter of poll numbers, Nate Silver at fivethirthyeight.com has a great analysis:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/can-biden-out-hillary-hillary.html

"The principal rationale for selecting Hillary Clinton as Barack Obama's running mate is that she would have united Democrats behind their nominee at a time when they have a substantial advantage in party identification. John Kerry received 89 percent of the Democratic vote in 2004; if Barack Obama can get within a couple of points of that, even to 86 or 87 percent, he will be very difficult to defeat.

However, Joe Biden might do nearly as good a job as Clinton of uniting the party, while perhaps paying less of a price among independents."

...

"What's noteworthy is not so much that Biden will turn a lot of McCain voters on -- Tim Kaine and Hillary Clinton would have done a better job of that -- but that he'll turn very few Obama voters off. As a result, this method projects a net swing of 2 points toward Obama, which is better than he'd do with any of the other candidates (Bayh, Kaine, Clinton, Sibelius). Biden also performed quite well in these ratings among undecided (43-22 favorable) and third-party (45-36 favorable) voters, though the sample sizes are probably too small to be worth worrying about."

Obama, McCain, Clinton,.., they are all politicians first. Winning the election is their only goal. They all tell what people want to hear. Bush won his first election in 2000 with the slogan "I am a uniter not a divider". He won the second election using the "faith" card. Obama won the primary with the slogan "Change" and using the "generation" card. Weaknesses like lack of convictions or judgement, or experience, or whatever eventually comes out and the polls go down. Unfortunately, people fall for slogans and even if they don't, they have no choice but to pick one such hypocrite.

OMG! Politicians are "hypocrites"? Politicians are no saints? OMG! Elections are 'more' than mere slogans? OMG! Obviously the winner wins beacuse he uses this or that card, the other guy doesn't. Yeah! Thanks for opening my eyes! wow!

I suspect, and there is indication, that Obama's numbers went up even before he picked the VP. We will never know for sure. McCain has been on attack since Georgia. The Obama campaign pushed back aggressively on the economic issue in the last week.

Nate silver at fivethirthyeight.com has a piece on VP pick and poll numbers, and McCain's negative ad to woo Clinton supporters using Clinton's words during the heated primaries:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/is-there-clinton-backlash-how-about.html

He writes, "I could see the ad being very effective. But it also tosses a big softball to Hillary Clinton, who will speak to a national audience on Tuesday. The risk to the Republicans can be summarized in five words: "Shame on You, John McCain". A finger-wagging, how-dare-you moment by either of the Clintons at the convention -- but especially Hillary -- could be both effective and therapeutic, especially when coupled with a reminder that McCain voted against measures like SCHIP (and voted to impeach her husband)."

On the poll numbers:

"By the way, this involves some voodoo math, but it appears to me that Barack Obama's overall advantage over John McCain in Rasmussen's one-day sample was 3 points. Rasmussen's numbers had been oscillating between a 1 and 2 point lead for Obama for several days now, so there may be a teensy-tiny bump here, but it's within the margin of error."

ABC/Washington Post survey shows Obama steady at a 6 point Registered Voter (RV) lead.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_082308.html

Reports of a surging McCain are greatly exaggerated. While Obama and McCain are mobilizing supporters and maintaining a close race, the numbers on this most recent ABC/WaPo poll have changed about as much as the other national polls -- by a point or two, Obama leading.

Presidential choice | RV 8/19-22 | (July) | (June)

Obama | 49 | (50) | (49)

McCain | 43 | (42) | (45)

The Registered Voter numbers (prior to the Biden announcement) are +6 Obama, but WaPo also offers Likely Voter numbers with trends (who is a likely voter this year remains unclear). This is a good example of current Likely Voter(LV) screens favoring McCain, whose demographic of older voters fits better into LV classification:

Presidential choice | LV 8/19-22 | (July) | (June)
Obama | 49 | (49) |(47)
McCain | 45 | (46) | (48)

As for particulars:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/23/AR2008082302288.html

"The focus on foreign policy crises over the past month, including the Russian invasion of Georgia, has played to McCain's perceived strengths among the electorate. He holds 2 to 1 leads over Obama in the new poll as the candidate with better knowledge of world affairs and the one who would make a better commander in chief. He is also regarded as superior to Obama in combating international terrorism and has a slender advantage on international affairs generally, the latter thanks to a clear edge among independents.

But on the question of who is better equipped to deal with specific foreign policy problems, McCain's advantages are less apparent. Voters rate McCain and Obama evenly on handling the situation in Iraq, and McCain has a negligible advantage in dealing with U.S. relations with Russia.

And it is Obama who continues to hold a lead on dealing with the nation's flagging economy, although his margin on that crucial question is somewhat narrower than it was a month ago. Where Obama is strongest is in public assessments of his candidacy and personality. He has a better than 2 to 1 edge as the more optimistic candidate and a 21-point advantage on who would do more to stand up to special interests.

Although both candidates have tried to stress their desire to govern in a bipartisan fashion, voters by a 12-point margin see Obama as the one more likely to work cooperatively with Republicans and Democrats in Congress."

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Usual enthusiasm gap:

"Nevertheless, McCain's candidacy cannot match Obama's on enthusiasm. More voters are enthusiastic about Obama's run than McCain's, and while almost all of those who support a candidate are enthusiastically behind their pick, Obama's backers are about twice as likely to call themselves "very enthusiastic," 52 to 28 percent."

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This is a bit different, though:

"As for the general tenor of the campaign, about two-thirds, 64 percent, said Obama is primarily focused on addressing the issues; 45 percent said so of McCain. On McCain's campaign, about as many, 48 percent, said he was instead mainly focused on attacking Obama."

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Our friends, the ex-Republicans:

"Independents overall remain about evenly split in their vote preferences: 45 percent support Obama, 43 percent McCain. Each candidate garners an identical 59 percent favorable rating from independents, underscoring some voters' tough choices ahead."

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Separately, Polling Report has a good summary of the Biden reaction with the voters.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08.htm

Between Fox and ABC/WaPo polls, the Biden choice makes no difference among 75% of responders (ABC/WaPo), and is a wash among Fox responders (Dems like the choice 3:1, opposite with the GOP). [Gallup and Rasmussen agree, but note that older voters like Biden, complementing Obama's appeal with younger voters.]

Bottom line is that, for now, the electorate remains polarized. Perhaps the best way (and maybe the only way) to break through is to elect a Democrat and show they can govern effectively. If the election were held today (and it won't be) the polls suggest that is what would happen, particularly if new and younger voters show.

Dear Rabbi Lerner,

How can anyone support a candidate who is the first presidential candidate to openly support infanticide? Have we sunk to such a level of degradation that we cannot recognize the insanity of such an idea?

"Betsy" S.