Nate Silver: Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls

Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Bluemthnal's outstanding Exit Poll FAQ. For the long version, see over there.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html

With an historic Election Day today, it is increasingly clear that the McCain-Palin campaign’s ACORN-voter fraud endgame may be to use their relentless attacks as a justification for a wave of legal challenges to close election results in key states. Over the weekend, McCain-Palin campaign manager Rick Davis made the rounds of the Sunday news shows claiming that polls showed McCain “structurally tied” in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Never mind that, as SilentPatriot at Crooks and Liars points out,

“In Nevada, Barack Obama leads in the last eight polls, with a margin between 4 and 12 points.
In Colorado, excluding John Zogby's garbage internet polls, Barack Obama has lead in every single poll taken since the end of September. What's more, the most recent PPP poll has him up a staggering 10 points.

And in New Mexico, Obama leads in every poll since the second week in September. The last four polls average out to a 10.5 [point] Obama lead.”

http://crooksandliars.com/silentpatriot/fox-news-sunday-what-hell-rick-davis

Campaigns historically make claims of pushing towards victory on the closing weekend before an election, but the McCain-Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee have been engaged in six weeks of smears and attacks on ACORN’s record-breaking voter registration work, all part of a coordinated effort to cast doubt on the integrity of the election. Where this is headed on?

Possible Post-Election Lawsuits.

As Wade Henderson, President of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights told the New York Times on October 26th: “There is a real concern that the courts will be asked once again to weigh in on tight races where the losing party may seek to raise real questions about the legitimacy of the vote…You can’t help but conclude that this is an effort to lay a foundation for a subsequent challenge to an Obama victory, should it occur.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/us/politics/27vote.html

Two weeks earlier elections expert Rick Hasen at Loyola Law School said something much the same in the Huffington Post, “For the last three elections, Republicans have been ramping up cries of voter fraud as a way of undermining the legitimacy of the election results should they not turn out in their favor...” HuffingtonPost.com

And just last week, the Washington Independent reported, “Even when the challenges fail, Republican officials persist in their claims of voter fraud in what appears to be an effort to lay the groundwork for challenging the outcome of Election Day.”

http://washingtonindependent.com/15217/voter-fraud

But even Ronald Michaelson, member of the McCain-Palin “Honest and Open Election Committee” admitted over the weekend to leading Conservative site The Politico,

“‘Do we have a documented instance of voting fraud that resulted from a phony registration form? No, I can’t cite one, chapter and verse,’ he said.… Asked whether his own party was responsible for fostering that perception, Michaelson said, ‘Well, it doesn’t help. It has captured the attention of a lot of people.’ Why do it, then? ‘Maybe it’s because there’s nothing else to talk about,’ he said.’”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15155.html

So where does that leave us? Adam Serwer, writing in The American Prospect notes that these accusations allow “the conservative media machine to cast doubt on the results of the election should Barack Obama win.” In other words, these attacks are a prelude to a concerted effort by conservatives, the GOP, and the McCain-Palin campaign to manufacture an “election integrity” crisis and use that pretense for a possible all-out fight to contest tomorrow’s results.

http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=are_the_republicans_right_about_acorn

Progressives must be ready to fight back. This election has brought millions of new voters into the process and energized millions more who have sat out previous opportunities to make their voices heard. The franchise itself is a right secured with the blood freedom fighters from past generations.

Millions of low-income people, people of color, and young people are reshaping the American Electorate. We cannot, indeed, we must not back down from any attempt to undermine the integrity of the election process itself through crises manufactured out of the whole cloth of baseless attacks on voter participation programs targeted towards underrepresented populations groups.

We are on the cusp of history and we owe it to ourselves and the people who came before us to ensure that this election reflects the will of the people.

David Neiwert at Crooks and Liars and John Aravosis at AmericaBlog have more on this topic:

Get ready for the right's post-election delegitimization drive
By David Neiwert Monday Nov 03, 2008

After Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, it was common for right-wingers to argue that he wasn't elected "legitimately" because he'd won with less than 50 percent of the vote, thanks to Ross Perot.

Of course, you didn't hear that much after 2000, when the future Worst President in History effectively stole the White House without even winning the popular vote.

Now that they're on the verge of getting an ass-kicking of historic proportions, they're warming up that familiar refrain.

The Instaputz cleared his throat today with a numbingly dumb NY Post piece titled "Stealing an Election? Obama's Dubious Allies". John Fund also held forth in Politico at length about how, yes, those falsified voter-registration form can in fact turn into real votes.

Well, yes, it is possible for fake registrations to be used for actual votes -- but to do so takes a large number of hoops to jump through on an individual basis. And it's what you call a low-reward crime; there isn't much incentive for large numbers of people to actually jump through all these hoops.

Fact is, the vast majority of fake registrations are winnowed out before Election Day. And if fake voters actually do make it to the polls, their numbers will be so small as to be inconsequential.

No, the main way to commit voting fraud on a massive scale on the registration level is to sign people up for the election -- and then throw out their registrations if they're from the opposite party. Who's been doing that? Republicans.

You can also run massive voter-purge operations and voter-caging schemes that rob citizens of their legitimate voting rights. Republicans have been doing that too.

Facts don't matter to people like the Putz and Fund, though. They're only interested in propagating right-wing bullshit. These guys are setting the table for after Tuesday.

We can count, I'm sure, on four years of hearing how Obama stole this election. After all, the one thing they can't stand is to admit they actually got their asses kicked.

Bill Kristol says they'll greet the news with "with our usual resolute stoicism or cheerful fatalism."

Yeah, right, Let's not forget their usual conspiracism and hysterics, either. Because that's what we're already getting.

http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/get-ready-rights-post-election-delig

***

Monday, November 03, 2008
John Fund has a bad track record of mistakes concerning ACORN

You remember ACORN? The group John McCain spoke to and praised a few years back? Well, the Wall Street Journal's embattled far-right columnist John Fund has been caught making some whoppers about ACORN in his new book. Media Matters reports:

"In the revised version of his book Stealing Elections, John Fund claims that the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now "runs something called 'Camp Obama,' which trains campaign volunteers in the same tactics that Obama honed as a community organizer." In the "Notes" section of the book, Fund attributes this assertion to a Chicago Sun-Times article, but the article does not link "Camp Obama" to ACORN -- indeed, it does not mention ACORN at all. Moreover, "Camp Obama" reportedly was established and run by the Obama campaign."

Oops. Who'd have ever guessed a far-right partisan at a Rupert Murdoch paper would lie in an effort to hurt a Democrat? It's pretty clear that when it comes to ACORN, Fund is a few nuts short.

http://www.americablog.com/2008/11/john-fund-has-bad-track-record-of.html

"whitey"
"racist"
"forty"
"c#$&"?
people you called in Missouri seems to like black people, which is cool

"more later"

can't wait

Election Night Resources

You can follow the live streamed results at Daily Kos' Electoral Scoreboard.

http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/

An Election Guide with extensive information about tonight's key races by poll closing time:

http://www.dailykos.com/special/2008ElectionGuide

Again, Ignore The Exit Polls

"You haven't seen any yet. In fact, you won't see them until after 5 pm. The people that run them are in a hermetically sealed environment.

But even after they get around and start leaking after 5 pm, ignore them. They do not tell you what you think they tell you (so saith Inigo Montoya).

But even when you ignore that and want to look at them, Read This First.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/looking_for_presidential_exit.php

It's from Mark Blumenthal and explains what you will be seeing. You'll learn about how they are done, how they are handling early voters, what to make of what you see on TV... and maybe even a little bit of what exit polls are for (and they are not to call the races.) ;-P"

The polls close at 7:00 Eastern in Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, and South Carolina, and anything other than a clean McCain sweep of those states likely means a short night.

Jonathan Martin writes up the counties to watch:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1108/Where_to_watch_tonight.html

After much thought, I decided to vote for Obama...here's why....

'Why I am Voting Democrat’

I'm voting democrat because Barbara Walters is my idol and so is P.Diddy.

I'm voting Democrat because English has no place being the official language in America.

I’m voting Democrat because I'd rather pay $4 for a gallon of gas than allow drilling for oil off the coasts of America.

I'm voting Democrat because I think the government will do a better job of spending my money than I could.

I'm voting Democrat because when we pull out of Afghanistan and Iraq, I know the Islamic terrorists will stop trying to kill us because they'll think we're a good and decent country.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe people who can't tell us if it will rain in two or three days, can now tell us the polar ice caps will disappear in ten years if I don't start riding a bicycle, build a windmill or inflate my tires to proper levels.

I'm voting Democrat because it's alright to kill millions of babies as long as we keep violent, convicted murderers on death row alive.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe businesses in America should not be
allowed to make profits. Businesses should just break even and give the rest to the government so politicians and bureaucrats can redistribute the money the way they think it should be redistributed.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe guns, and not the people misusing them, are the cause of crimes and killings.

I'm voting Democrat because when someone with a weapon threatens my family or me, I know the government can respond faster through a call to 911 than I can with a gun in my hand.

I'm voting Democrat because oil companies' 5% profit on a gallon of gas are obscene, but government taxes of 18% on the same gallon of gas are just fine.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe three or four elitist liberals should rewrite the Constitution every few months to suit some fringe element that could never get their agenda past voters.

I'm voting Democrat because illegal aliens are not criminals, are not sucking up resources through government aid, hospital services, education, or social services, but are just people trying to make a better life by coming to America illegally. We can't blame them for that, can we?

I'm voting Democrat because the same teacher that didn't teach my child to read can reasonably educate them about sex.

I'm voting Democrat because my trial lawyer's crippling multi-million dollar lawsuits against doctors, hospitals, drug companies, and HMO's will make health insurance and medicine much more affordable.

I'm voting Democrat because Al Sharpton, Louis Farrakhan, and Jesse Jackson will end racism once and for all.

I'm voting Democrat because Christians in the Republican Party are intolerant, theocratic warmongers and atheists like William Ayers have never hurt anybody.

I'm voting Democrat so that no family member of mine will die in a hospital bed. They will still be waiting in line for Obama's socialized medicine, so they will never actually make it into a hospital bed.

I'm voting Democrat because I like eminent domain and big business and government kicking me out of my home and taking my land.

I'm voting Democrat because everyone knows that raising taxes at the top won't hurt people at the bottom.

I'm voting Democrat because skin color and good oratory skills are more important than judgment and experience.

I'm voting Democrat because protecting barren wasteland is more important than energy indepedence.

I'm voting Democrat because my college professor told me that America is evil and should give up its place in the world.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe that Cuba, Russia, and China should be on the United Nations Human Rights Council.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe that everyone is essentially good -- even people like Ahmadinejad who call for the destruction of Israel. He just needs a little understanding.

I'm voting Democrat because we should all be forced to drive ugly cars with the horsepower of a riding lawnmower.

I am voting Democrat because I believe in change; although I don't know WHAT the change will be, or HOW it will happen, AND I am pretty sure that I won't WANT to actually change anything I do, but still....I believe in change.

I'm voting Democrat because the government knows how to raise children better than parents do.

I'm voting Democrat because I want the rich to work harder, give me their money, and pay for my services so I don't have to.

Nate Silver's Final projection:

Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189

"It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America. The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.

We also project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points; his lead is slightly larger than that in the polls now, but our model accounts for the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day.

This race appears to have stabilized as of about the time of the second debate in Nashville, Tennessee on October 8th. Since that time, Obama has maintained a national lead of between 6 and 8 points, with little discernible momentum for either candidate. Just as noteworthy is the fact that the number of undecided voters is now very small, representing not much more than 2-3 percent of the electorate. Undecided voters who committed over the past several weeks appear to have broken roughly equally between the two candidates.

Our model forecasts a small third-party vote of between 1 and 2 points total; it is not likely to be a decisive factor in this election except perhaps in Montana, where Ron Paul is on the ballot and may garner 4-5 percent of the vote.

Any forecasting system is only as good as its inputs, and so if the polls are systematically wrong, our projection is subject to error as well. Nevertheless, even as we account for other cycles in which the polling numbers materially missed the national popular vote margin (such as in 1980), a McCain win appears highly unlikely. It is also possible, of course, that the polls are shy in Obama's direction rather than McCain's, in which case a double-digit win is possible.

Nor does McCain appear to have much chance of winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote; in fact, our model thinks that Obama is slightly more likely to do so. McCain diverted many of his resources to Pennsylvania, a state where he narrowed Obama's margins somewhat, but which our model concludes that Obama is now virtually certain to win. This may have allowed Obama to consolidate his margins in other battleground states, particularly Western states like Colorado and Nevada to which McCain has devoted little recent attention."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html

Down with whitey! O, waitaminute, that is me! Hmmmm . . ., um, well . . .

Reparations! Reparations! Can I get 40 acres to go with that 40 ouncer!?!

Yeah baby! Ayers, my brother, I'll meet you at church!

O yeah!

yo flabs...

did u buy a "forty" to cheer on ur idol barack tonight?

whoahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.........

voted for the first time....damn!

the lineup wasn't bad...at all....but a lot of smiles and excitement...there was a fat feller with a mac/paining t'shirt on ...damn... did he get dissed and booooooed...yo!!!!!!!

the Love Ranch will be abuzz tonight...if u are a dem u will get two free drinks on the house till ten...if u are a chick u can drink free all night.....

but if u are republican, u'll get thrown out...

Baby D....congrats on voting first time... next thing we know you'll tell us you got laid for the first time....you'll finally become a man..

"....but if u are republican, u'll get thrown out..." so much for that Obama uniter stuff...

:)

whaaaaa....this....I'read....."next thing we know you'll tell us you got laid for the first time....you'll finally become a man.."

so getting "LAID"...means you have become a MAN........

Ladies, all together now.....HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!

:)))))))made my day.....

hey skinny....we knew you would come round...sooner or later...

yes.....usually....I flip through the channels to see results....I am a channel flipper...but if it shows McCain/Palin behind I will switch to FOX, for sure, to hear how the proagandists are handling it....

yes, I am hoping for a blowout....a nuclear blowout but I will settle for a slim win.....:))))))later...folks....

exciting!!!

Hey, thanks for the updates, as I do not have TV while camping. Obama!

Cheers,
Char